NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Harvest season is bringing both opportunity and strain, according to Rabobank’s Fall Harvest Outlook for North America. Analysts with the global ag lender say producers are facing a convergence of high input costs, shifting trade flows, and growing policy uncertainty that could delay a recovery in the commodity cycle.
Rabobank’s team points out that the U.S. — once China’s primary soybean supplier — has now been entirely replaced by Brazil, which supplies roughly 90 percent of China’s imports in 2025. Cheaper labor, multi-crop seasons, and favorable logistics have made South America more competitive. The shift, combined with tariffs and trade tensions, continues to challenge U.S. farmers, who are struggling to remain profitable despite strong yields.
Input inflation remains a key pressure point, as fertilizer demand and government policy distort pricing. Analysts warn that enhanced federal payments, while well-intentioned, risk further market imbalances. Some producers exploring sustainability and cost-cutting innovations face new barriers as they try to improve margins without adding risk. Rabobank says the path forward depends on returning to market fundamentals and reducing policy-driven volatility.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Rabobank’s outlook signals a tightening margin environment, emphasizing the need for cost control, trade stability, and clearer policy signals heading into 2026.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
While this month’s WASDE report will not include updated figures on U.S. crop size, officials say it will offer a clearer picture of crop conditions in the Southern Hemisphere.
December 08, 2025 01:16 PM
·
USTR Jamieson Greer signals a narrower trade deal with China, adding more market uncertainty. The Farm Bureau also supports reviewing China’s missed trade commitments under the Phase One.
December 08, 2025 01:00 PM
·
Southern producers head into 2026 with thin margins, tighter credit, and rising agronomic risks despite scattered yield improvements.
December 08, 2025 12:04 PM
·
Record yields and exceptionally low BCFM strengthen U.S. corn’s competitive position in global markets.
December 08, 2025 12:00 PM
·
Credit stress is building for row-crop farms despite steady land values and slight price improvements.
December 06, 2025 03:00 PM
·
RFD-TV Farm Legal and Tax Expert Roger McEowen explains the basics of Low-Risk Credit in Farming, and how an understanding of the farm credit landscape lets producers tactfully approach debt.
December 05, 2025 02:40 PM
·
Mike Steenhoek, with the Soy Transportation Commission, shares his outlook on current grain stocks and transportation lines amid bumper crops filling bins across the United States.
December 05, 2025 02:18 PM
·
American soybean and corn leaders, along with Canada’s AgriFood sector, testified before the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office in support of the trade pact between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada.
December 05, 2025 12:29 PM
·
Working capital is tightening for crop farms, increasing reliance on operating loans even as land values steady in the broader sector.
December 04, 2025 02:59 PM
·
