NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Harvest season is bringing both opportunity and strain, according to Rabobank’s Fall Harvest Outlook for North America. Analysts with the global ag lender say producers are facing a convergence of high input costs, shifting trade flows, and growing policy uncertainty that could delay a recovery in the commodity cycle.
Rabobank’s team points out that the U.S. — once China’s primary soybean supplier — has now been entirely replaced by Brazil, which supplies roughly 90 percent of China’s imports in 2025. Cheaper labor, multi-crop seasons, and favorable logistics have made South America more competitive. The shift, combined with tariffs and trade tensions, continues to challenge U.S. farmers, who are struggling to remain profitable despite strong yields.
Input inflation remains a key pressure point, as fertilizer demand and government policy distort pricing. Analysts warn that enhanced federal payments, while well-intentioned, risk further market imbalances. Some producers exploring sustainability and cost-cutting innovations face new barriers as they try to improve margins without adding risk. Rabobank says the path forward depends on returning to market fundamentals and reducing policy-driven volatility.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Rabobank’s outlook signals a tightening margin environment, emphasizing the need for cost control, trade stability, and clearer policy signals heading into 2026.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
While agriculture doesn’t predict every recession, the sector’s long history of turning down before the broader economy
November 16, 2025 12:00 PM
·
The ACRE Act modestly reduces farmland borrowing costs now, with more savings possible once federal guidance clarifies which loans qualify.
November 15, 2025 03:00 PM
·
ARC-CO delivers the bulk of 2024 support, offering key margin relief as producers manage tight operating conditions.
November 15, 2025 12:00 PM
·
USDA’s steady yields and heavy global stocks keep grains range-bound unless demand firms or South American weather becomes a real threat.
November 14, 2025 05:26 PM
·
As economic pressures continue to squeeze agriculture, ag lenders are signaling a more cautious outlook for farm profitability heading into next year, particularly among grain producers facing lower commodity prices and higher operating costs.
November 14, 2025 02:10 PM
·
USDA released the November WASDE Report on Friday, the first supply-and-demand estimate to drop since September, just before the 43-day government shutdown.
November 14, 2025 12:22 PM
·
China’s cost advantage with Brazilian soybeans and vague public messaging leave U.S. export prospects uncertain heading into winter.
November 14, 2025 11:03 AM
·
AFBF economist Faith Parum breaks down the potential impact of the proposed policy change to allow year-round sales of E15 biofuel.
November 13, 2025 02:34 PM
·
Learn the conditions farmers must meet to qualify for this new three-year tax deferral on farmland sales, how much it could save, and other details to consider.
November 13, 2025 01:57 PM
·
