NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Harvest season is bringing both opportunity and strain, according to Rabobank’s Fall Harvest Outlook for North America. Analysts with the global ag lender say producers are facing a convergence of high input costs, shifting trade flows, and growing policy uncertainty that could delay a recovery in the commodity cycle.
Rabobank’s team points out that the U.S. — once China’s primary soybean supplier — has now been entirely replaced by Brazil, which supplies roughly 90 percent of China’s imports in 2025. Cheaper labor, multi-crop seasons, and favorable logistics have made South America more competitive. The shift, combined with tariffs and trade tensions, continues to challenge U.S. farmers, who are struggling to remain profitable despite strong yields.
Input inflation remains a key pressure point, as fertilizer demand and government policy distort pricing. Analysts warn that enhanced federal payments, while well-intentioned, risk further market imbalances. Some producers exploring sustainability and cost-cutting innovations face new barriers as they try to improve margins without adding risk. Rabobank says the path forward depends on returning to market fundamentals and reducing policy-driven volatility.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Rabobank’s outlook signals a tightening margin environment, emphasizing the need for cost control, trade stability, and clearer policy signals heading into 2026.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
Pasture, Rangeland and Forage (PRF) interval selection—not just participation—drives protection levels as rainfall patterns become less predictable across the South.
November 11, 2025 11:06 AM
·
If the House concurs and the President signs, USDA services and farm-bill programs resume at full speed with authorities extended for another year.
November 11, 2025 10:46 AM
·
A smaller U.S. turkey flock and resurgent avian flu have tightened supplies, driving prices higher even as other key holiday foods show mixed trends.
November 10, 2025 03:05 PM
·
The allure of rural property — with its promise of space, freedom, and self-sufficiency — is undeniable, but local zoning regulations govern the reality.
November 10, 2025 01:55 PM
·
ARC/PLC, marketing loans, and crop insurance each matter at different points in the price cycle — and the new Farm Bill strengthens the balance among them.
November 10, 2025 01:38 PM
·
Experts highlight the importance of monitoring insecticide resistance in crops and improving disease traceability at livestock shows through RFID technology.
November 10, 2025 12:22 PM
·
Lewie Pugh, with the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association, joined us on Monday’s Market Day Report to share his perspective on what the bill could mean for truckers.
November 10, 2025 11:46 AM
·
Ohio AgNet’s Dusty Sonnenberg takes us up in the cab with a popcorn farmer bringing in this year’s haul.
November 10, 2025 11:07 AM
·
Here is a regional snapshot of harvest pace, crop conditions, logistics, and livestock economics across U.S. agriculture for the week of Monday, Nov. 10, 2025.
November 10, 2025 10:48 AM
·
