Record Corn Crop Tests Demand Across Feed, Ethanol

Set targets and use forwards, futures, or options to manage downside while preserving room for rallies.

corn total acre farming.jpg

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — A massive U.S. corn harvest is colliding with only incremental demand gains, keeping prices heavy into winter.

In an analysis for Mississippi State University, Will Maples noted that the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) September projection of 16.8 billion bushels—nearly 1.5 billion above the 2023 record—would hold even if yields are trimmed post-harvest.

Most use sits in three bins: feed, ethanol, and exports

Feed demand is pegged near 6.1 billion bushels, the highest since at least 2000, supported by lower prices and rising grain-consuming animal units (100.8 in 2025 vs. 99.9 last year). Ethanol grind is projected around 5.6 billion bushels (up from 5.4), with year-round E15 still a potential kicker.

Exports are the standout

Sales are tracking toward a record 3.0 billion bushels, led by Mexico, Japan, and Colombia—despite China’s absence since 2023/24 and a pause in weekly updates during the shutdown-scrapped October WASDE. Maples’ bottom line: strong use won’t outrun record supply, so price relief rests on final production and disciplined marketing.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Set targets and use forwards, futures, or options to manage downside while preserving room for rallies.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
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Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

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