LUBBOCK, TEXAS (RFD NEWS) — Brazil’s expanding crop production continues to reshape global markets, raising competitive pressure for U.S. producers as the Southern Hemisphere growing season moves forward. William Maples, Extension economist with Mississippi State University, says early indicators from Brazil suggest another year of heavy export competition for soybeans, corn, and cotton.
Soybean harvest has just begun, with national progress still below 1 percent as of mid-January. USDA projects Brazilian soybean production at 178 million metric tons, equivalent to roughly 6.5 billion bushels, which would mark a new record if achieved. Strong demand from China and Brazil’s B15 biodiesel mandate continues to support expansion. Exports are forecast at 114 million metric tons, or about 4.2 billion bushels, compared with projected U.S. exports of 1.6 billion bushels.
Corn outlooks carry more uncertainty. Brazil is projected to produce 131 million metric tons of corn, roughly 5.2 billion bushels, about 2 percent below last year. La Niña risks and delays in soybean harvest could limit planting of second-crop safrinha corn, which now accounts for nearly four-fifths of Brazil’s total corn output.
Brazilian cotton production is projected at 18.75 million bales, up 10 percent from last year, reinforcing Brazil’s position as the world’s leading cotton exporter.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Large Brazilian crops heighten downside price risk if weather allows production to reach projected levels.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
China’s reliance on imported soybeans remains entrenched, shaping global demand and trade leverage.
February 12, 2026 10:46 AM
·
Cuba remains a steady, nearby buyer of U.S. poultry, pork, dairy, and staples, but legal and compliance risks could still affect shipping and payment channels.
February 12, 2026 10:00 AM
·
Agriculture remains a key drag on regional growth amid weak prices and policy uncertainty.
February 12, 2026 08:00 AM
·
While access to China remains uncertain, U.S. beef exporters are finding resilience and opportunity in other global markets, which could help maintain industry value and expand export opportunities.
February 11, 2026 02:41 PM
·
Dr. Jeffrey Gold, president of the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, joins us on Rural Health Matters to discuss winter safety reminders and preparedness.
February 11, 2026 02:13 PM
·
ASFMRA’s Dennis Reyman discusses farmer sentiment, land values, and how global and financial pressures are shaping decision-making in the ag land market.
February 11, 2026 01:51 PM
·
Richard Gupton of the Agricultural Retailers Association discusses the EPA’s new decision on over-the-top Dicamba and what it means for growers this year.
February 11, 2026 01:32 PM
·
Mike Spier, president and CEO of U.S. Wheat Associates, discusses the new U.S.-Bangladesh trade agreement and its potential benefits for U.S. wheat growers.
February 11, 2026 12:37 PM
·
Gretchen Kuck of the National Corn Growers Association joined us to discuss the Ag Coalition for USMCA’s report findings and expectations ahead of the upcoming USMCA review.
February 11, 2026 12:17 PM
·
