Record Ethanol Output Lifts Production Pace Above Seasonal Norms

Record output, larger stocks, and softer exports point to a well-supplied domestic ethanol market as harvest progresses.

NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD-TV) — U.S. ethanol plants pushed to a new weekly production record as October closed, offering a strong signal of steady grind and favorable margins. According to EIA data analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association, output for the week ending Oct. 31 rose 2.9% to 1.12 million barrels per day, equal to 47.17 million gallons daily. Production ran 1.6% above last year and 5.3% above the three-year average, with the four-week average climbing to 1.10 million b/d, an annualized rate of 16.91 billion gallons.

Ethanol stocks also built, rising 1.3% to 22.7 million barrels, now running 2.9% ahead of last year and 4.2% above typical levels. Inventories increased in every region except the Rockies and West Coast, reflecting strong Midwest output and ample storage capacity. Gasoline supplied—an indicator of implied fuel demand—slipped 0.6% to 8.87 million b/d, a level slightly stronger than a year ago but still 2.6% below the three-year seasonal benchmark.

Refiner and blender net inputs of ethanol fell 0.8% to 904,000 b/d, a figure now 1.5% below last year but marginally above the longer-term average. Export volumes softened significantly, sliding 38.9% to an estimated 107,000 b/d, while EIA continued to report no imports for more than a year.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Record output, larger stocks, and softer exports point to a well-supplied domestic ethanol market as harvest progresses.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
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Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

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