Record Ethanol Output Lifts Production Pace Above Seasonal Norms

Record output, larger stocks, and softer exports point to a well-supplied domestic ethanol market as harvest progresses.

NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD-TV) — U.S. ethanol plants pushed to a new weekly production record as October closed, offering a strong signal of steady grind and favorable margins. According to EIA data analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association, output for the week ending Oct. 31 rose 2.9% to 1.12 million barrels per day, equal to 47.17 million gallons daily. Production ran 1.6% above last year and 5.3% above the three-year average, with the four-week average climbing to 1.10 million b/d, an annualized rate of 16.91 billion gallons.

Ethanol stocks also built, rising 1.3% to 22.7 million barrels, now running 2.9% ahead of last year and 4.2% above typical levels. Inventories increased in every region except the Rockies and West Coast, reflecting strong Midwest output and ample storage capacity. Gasoline supplied—an indicator of implied fuel demand—slipped 0.6% to 8.87 million b/d, a level slightly stronger than a year ago but still 2.6% below the three-year seasonal benchmark.

Refiner and blender net inputs of ethanol fell 0.8% to 904,000 b/d, a figure now 1.5% below last year but marginally above the longer-term average. Export volumes softened significantly, sliding 38.9% to an estimated 107,000 b/d, while EIA continued to report no imports for more than a year.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Record output, larger stocks, and softer exports point to a well-supplied domestic ethanol market as harvest progresses.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
Related Stories
Federal assistance has helped, but the most recent row-crop losses remain on producers’ balance sheets.
OOIDA’s Lewie Pugh discusses the EPA’s new Right to Repair guidance and other regulatory developments impacting the trucking and agriculture industries.
Rebuilding domestic textiles depends on automation and vertical integration, not tariffs or legacy manufacturing models.
Strong supplies and rising stocks point to continued price pressure unless demand accelerates.
Low prices are painful now, but production response could support stronger milk markets later in 2026.
At CattleCon 2026 in Nashville, RealAg Radio’s Shaun Haney discusses profitability, consumer demand, and how the integrated U.S.–Canada beef supply chain impacts cattle producers across North America.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Strong corn exports offer support, while soybeans and wheat remain weighed down by ample global supplies, according to the USDA’s latest WASDE report for February.
Higher livestock prices reflect resilient demand, even as disease and herd shifts reshape 2026 supply expectations.
Bankruptcy filings reflect prolonged margin pressure, rising debt, and limited financial flexibility across farm country. Bigger operating loans are helping farms manage costs, but they also signal growing reliance on borrowed capital.
Lower freight costs helped sustain export demand amid a challenging pricing environment.
Producers across the country spent the week balancing spring planning with tight margins and uneven moisture outlooks. Input purchasing stayed cautious, while marketing and cash-flow decisions remained front and center for many operations.
Income support helps, but farm finances remain tight heading into 2026.
Agriculture Shows
Hosted by Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady and RFD News Markets Specialist Tony St. James, Commodity Talk delivers expert insight into the day’s ag commodity markets just before the CME opens. Only on RFD-TV and Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147.
A look at the news, weather and commodities headlines that drove agriculture markets in the past week.
Everything profits from prairie. Soil, air, water — and all kinds of life! Learn how you can improve your land with prairie restoration, cover crops and prairie strips, while growing your bottom line.
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.