Record Ethanol Output Lifts Production Pace Above Seasonal Norms

Record output, larger stocks, and softer exports point to a well-supplied domestic ethanol market as harvest progresses.

NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD-TV) — U.S. ethanol plants pushed to a new weekly production record as October closed, offering a strong signal of steady grind and favorable margins. According to EIA data analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association, output for the week ending Oct. 31 rose 2.9% to 1.12 million barrels per day, equal to 47.17 million gallons daily. Production ran 1.6% above last year and 5.3% above the three-year average, with the four-week average climbing to 1.10 million b/d, an annualized rate of 16.91 billion gallons.

Ethanol stocks also built, rising 1.3% to 22.7 million barrels, now running 2.9% ahead of last year and 4.2% above typical levels. Inventories increased in every region except the Rockies and West Coast, reflecting strong Midwest output and ample storage capacity. Gasoline supplied—an indicator of implied fuel demand—slipped 0.6% to 8.87 million b/d, a level slightly stronger than a year ago but still 2.6% below the three-year seasonal benchmark.

Refiner and blender net inputs of ethanol fell 0.8% to 904,000 b/d, a figure now 1.5% below last year but marginally above the longer-term average. Export volumes softened significantly, sliding 38.9% to an estimated 107,000 b/d, while EIA continued to report no imports for more than a year.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Record output, larger stocks, and softer exports point to a well-supplied domestic ethanol market as harvest progresses.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
Related Stories
Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities joins us to break down the latest USDA crop progress report, share insights from growers, and discuss how global factors are shaping planting decisions this season.
Growers are making progress with planting despite dry conditions.
Dry conditions are already showing up in pastures across the region this April.
House lawmakers push toward a Farm Bill vote as debate grows over E15, Prop 12, and input costs, with farmers seeking certainty and policy updates.
High input costs and persistant drought is pushing Midwest growers to rethink planting decisions.
Higher cow numbers and slightly stronger output per cow pushed milk production above last year.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Data center growth can bring opportunities, but competition for land, water, and power will matter more in rural areas.
Rail rulings, export terminal access, and equipment rules are becoming bigger factors in grain shipping costs and reliability.
Higher ocean freight rates can add export cost pressure even when grain demand remains active.
March pork gains lifted total meat production, but first-quarter output still ran below last year.
Weekly export movement stayed solid, with corn and sorghum continuing to show the strongest overall pace.
Food inflation is still building in 2026, with beef leading pressure while eggs and dairy offer some relief.
Agriculture Shows
For the latest information on how to take your operation from good to great, tune into Ag PhD. The program includes a wide range of agronomic information from how to maximize your fertilizer program & tiling to stopping those yield-robbing insects and crop diseases and more.
RFD Network is always creating new ways for rural America to educate and to be educated. RURAL AMERICA LIVE, the network’s longest-running self-produced program, is certainly no exception.