Record U.S. Ethanol Output Contrasts with Softer Demand Trends

Strong plant output and rising exports contrast with softer domestic blending demand, suggesting margins are poised for volatility.

Farmland producing ethanol for the oil and gas industry. Railroad tankers cars lined up near a ethanol plant at sunset_Photo by photogrfx via AdobeStock_496174713.png

Photo by photogrfx via Adobe Stock

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — U.S. ethanol plants pushed production to a new weekly record even as gasoline demand weakened, creating a more mixed outlook for margins heading into winter. For producers, the latest data signals strong plant efficiency and steady grind — but softer downstream demand may limit near-term price strength.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), ethanol output for the week ending November 28 rose 1.2 percent to 1.13 million barrels per day — equal to 47.29 million gallons daily and nearly 5 percent above last year. The four-week average also edged higher to 1.10 million barrels per day, an annualized pace of 16.94 billion gallons.

Stocks climbed 2.5 percent to 22.5 million barrels, though inventories remained slightly below year-ago levels. Builds occurred in every region except the Gulf Coast and West Coast.

The demand side weakened. Gasoline supplied to the market fell 4.6 percent to a 26-week low, and refiner/blender net inputs of ethanol dropped to their lowest level since early winter.

One bright spot was exports, which jumped 39 percent to 170,000 barrels per day — the highest in more than a year.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Strong plant output and rising exports contrast with softer domestic blending demand, suggesting margins are poised for volatility.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Fewer DEF-related shutdowns could mean more uptime during planting and harvest seasons.
Shaun Haney, host of RealAg Radio, outlines potential risks for agriculture as negotiations continue between the two countries
Consumer spending continues, but value-focused buying is on the rise.
Farm legal expert Roger McEowen highlights the legal challenges surrounding stray voltage, a recent court decision, and what it means for agricultural producers.
Consistent sorghum quality supports strong export demand potential.
Corn and sorghum exports remain strong; soybean demand lags.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Lower shipping costs favor corn, while soybeans face pressure.
K-State’s Dr. Gregg Ibendahl breaks down the impacts of the Middle East ceasefire on energy markets and input costs, and what farmers should watch in the weeks ahead.
CME Group Executive Director of Ag Research Fred Seamon discusses the recent rise in farmer sentiment highlighted in the March Ag Economy Barometer report.
Faster approvals could speed projects, but may face scrutiny.
Coal-based ethanol could weaken long-term export demand for corn-based fuels.
Data centers may compete with farms for key resources.