Record U.S. Ethanol Output Contrasts with Softer Demand Trends

Strong plant output and rising exports contrast with softer domestic blending demand, suggesting margins are poised for volatility.

Farmland producing ethanol for the oil and gas industry. Railroad tankers cars lined up near a ethanol plant at sunset_Photo by photogrfx via AdobeStock_496174713.png

Photo by photogrfx via Adobe Stock

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — U.S. ethanol plants pushed production to a new weekly record even as gasoline demand weakened, creating a more mixed outlook for margins heading into winter. For producers, the latest data signals strong plant efficiency and steady grind — but softer downstream demand may limit near-term price strength.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), ethanol output for the week ending November 28 rose 1.2 percent to 1.13 million barrels per day — equal to 47.29 million gallons daily and nearly 5 percent above last year. The four-week average also edged higher to 1.10 million barrels per day, an annualized pace of 16.94 billion gallons.

Stocks climbed 2.5 percent to 22.5 million barrels, though inventories remained slightly below year-ago levels. Builds occurred in every region except the Gulf Coast and West Coast.

The demand side weakened. Gasoline supplied to the market fell 4.6 percent to a 26-week low, and refiner/blender net inputs of ethanol dropped to their lowest level since early winter.

One bright spot was exports, which jumped 39 percent to 170,000 barrels per day — the highest in more than a year.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Strong plant output and rising exports contrast with softer domestic blending demand, suggesting margins are poised for volatility.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Mike Knotts with the Tennessee Electric Cooperative Association joined us with the latest on storm impacts, power restoration, and safety considerations following the ice storm.
Year-round E15 remains on the table, but procedural caution and competing regional interests pushed action into a slower, negotiated path.
Strong production and rising stocks may pressure ethanol margins unless demand or exports continue to improve.
Rising import pressure and tougher export competition are likely to persist into 2026, supporting domestic supplies while capping export growth.
Without additional support, many soybean operations will continue to face financial stress as they prepare for the 2026 crop.
Americans for Prosperity Arkansas Director Ryan Norris talks energy infrastructure, regulatory reform, and the role of critical minerals in supporting rural America.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Border closures tied to the threat of New World Screwworm continue to stall Mexican fed cattle imports, tightening U.S. feeder cattle supplies over time — triggering feedlot closures that hinder herd rebuilding efforts, threaten the beef supply chain, and shrink production while consumer prices stay elevated.
Agriculture avoided major disruptions, but trade uncertainty remains elevated.
The debate now matters as much as the policy — market rules and regulatory clarity depend on whether Congress can finish the bill this year.
Domestic beef demand remains solid, with the strongest growth occurring through retail channels, according to consumers surveyed in the latest K-State Meat Demand Monitor.
Stronger fuel demand supports corn usage despite a steady production pace.
Fertilizer still consumes an unusually large share of crop value.