Record U.S. Ethanol Output Contrasts with Softer Demand Trends

Strong plant output and rising exports contrast with softer domestic blending demand, suggesting margins are poised for volatility.

Farmland producing ethanol for the oil and gas industry. Railroad tankers cars lined up near a ethanol plant at sunset_Photo by photogrfx via AdobeStock_496174713.png

Photo by photogrfx via Adobe Stock

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — U.S. ethanol plants pushed production to a new weekly record even as gasoline demand weakened, creating a more mixed outlook for margins heading into winter. For producers, the latest data signals strong plant efficiency and steady grind — but softer downstream demand may limit near-term price strength.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), ethanol output for the week ending November 28 rose 1.2 percent to 1.13 million barrels per day — equal to 47.29 million gallons daily and nearly 5 percent above last year. The four-week average also edged higher to 1.10 million barrels per day, an annualized pace of 16.94 billion gallons.

Stocks climbed 2.5 percent to 22.5 million barrels, though inventories remained slightly below year-ago levels. Builds occurred in every region except the Gulf Coast and West Coast.

The demand side weakened. Gasoline supplied to the market fell 4.6 percent to a 26-week low, and refiner/blender net inputs of ethanol dropped to their lowest level since early winter.

One bright spot was exports, which jumped 39 percent to 170,000 barrels per day — the highest in more than a year.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Strong plant output and rising exports contrast with softer domestic blending demand, suggesting margins are poised for volatility.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
U.S. sugar producers and processors should brace for price pressure and challenging export logistics with global sugar supply ramping up — driven by Brazil, India, and Thailand — especially at the raw processing level.
Host of RealAg Radio Shaun Haney discusses how the proposed reductions to agriculture programs in Canada’s new budget could affect research and support programs that farmers need.
Wed, 12/10/25 – 7:30 PM ET | 6:30 PM CT | 5:30 PM MT | 4:30 PM PT
The Farm Bureau urges trade enforcement, biofuel growth, fair input pricing, and pro-farmer policy reforms to restore long-term certainty.
Farmers for Free Trade Executive Director Brian Kuehl shares more about the tour to gather farmers’ insights on the economic challenges they face in the ag economy.
Wheat futures briefly hit a three-month high before retreating as the markets wait for word on whether the deal will actually happen.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Trade uncertainty—especially regarding soybeans—continues to weigh on future outlooks, even as farm finances and land values remain resilient.
Strong export demand supports feed grain prices, but drought risk and seasonal patterns favor disciplined early-year marketing.
Corn export strength remains a key demand anchor, while China’s continued involvement in soybeans and sorghum bears close watching for price direction.
Preserving equity through active risk management remains critical in a volatile, supply-driven market.
Weather, Tight Supplies, and Planning Shape Farm Decisions
Bigger cows must wean proportionally heavier calves to justify higher ownership costs.