Skim Supplies: U.S. dairy industry could face a possible shortage of milk cows

The U.S. could be facing a milk-cow shortage.

New data from CoBank show the number of cows able to produce milk has fallen to a 20-year low. Analysts predict that the trend will continue until a recovery period sometime in 2027, when more dairy facilities are expected to come online.

Record-high prices for beef calves, coupled with tight cattle supplies, have prompted many dairy producers to produce more calves for feedlots and fewer for milk barns.

Related Stories
The federal government’s status is far from the only factor moving the markets on Friday. Two critical reports released today on producer inflation and the status of the U.S. cattle herd are also top of mind.
Record milk output looks strong today, but shrinking replacement numbers mean future supply adjustments could be faster and more volatile.
AFBF Economist Danny Munch shares a closer look at the dairy market and the forces impacting producers today.
Early indications suggest the U.S. cattle industry may be nearing the end of its liquidation phase. Oklahoma State University livestock economist Dr. Derrell Peel says the industry could be at or near the cyclical low.
Beef x Dairy cattle with strong genetics and documentation are earning prices comparable to native feeders.
FarmHER Chris Nellis and her daughters navigate loss while carrying on a 300-year farm legacy, milking cows in upstate New York.
Mixed product pricing and rising milk supplies suggest margin management will remain critical as 2026 unfolds.
Meat stocks rose seasonally but remain below last year overall, while tighter butter inventories could support dairy prices, and belly stocks warrant close watch for pork markets.
Dairy farmer and Discover Ag co-host Tara Vander Dussen joined us to discuss the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act, her experience at the signing, and what’s next for her family and farm.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Rooster is a full-time farmhand, right-hand man on Shawn Raff’s cattle and dairy operation in Eatonton, Georgia.
While the 2018 Farm Bill received an extension under the “One, Big, Beautiful Bill” Act, the National Pork Producers Council wants lawmakers to do more to support the sector.
Kip Eideberg with the Association of Equipment Manufacturers details its campaign spotlighting the people who build equipment vital to farming and food manufacturing.
Buzzard discusses her upcoming appearance on the Dirt Diaries podcast with host Kirbe Schnoor and the importance of sharing authentic stories about agriculture.
Dr. Jeffrey Gold, President of the University of Nebraska, joined us to break down what telehealth entails and which conditions can be managed through remote appointments.
Agriculture Shows
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.
Champions of Rural America is a half-hour dive into the legislative priorities for Rural America. Join us as we interview members of the Congressional Western Caucus to learn about efforts in Washington to preserve agriculture and tackles the most important topics in the ag industry on Champions of Rural America!
Featuring members of Congress, federal and state officials, ag and food leaders, farmers, and roundtable panelists for debates and discussions.