Skim Supplies: U.S. dairy industry could face a possible shortage of milk cows

The U.S. could be facing a milk-cow shortage.

New data from CoBank show the number of cows able to produce milk has fallen to a 20-year low. Analysts predict that the trend will continue until a recovery period sometime in 2027, when more dairy facilities are expected to come online.

Record-high prices for beef calves, coupled with tight cattle supplies, have prompted many dairy producers to produce more calves for feedlots and fewer for milk barns.

Related Stories
Smaller cow numbers and a declining calf crop point to prolonged tight cattle supplies, limiting near-term herd rebuilding potential.
The federal government’s status is far from the only factor moving the markets on Friday. Two critical reports released today on producer inflation and the status of the U.S. cattle herd are also top of mind.
Record milk output looks strong today, but shrinking replacement numbers mean future supply adjustments could be faster and more volatile.
AFBF Economist Danny Munch shares a closer look at the dairy market and the forces impacting producers today.
Early indications suggest the U.S. cattle industry may be nearing the end of its liquidation phase. Oklahoma State University livestock economist Dr. Derrell Peel says the industry could be at or near the cyclical low.
Beef x Dairy cattle with strong genetics and documentation are earning prices comparable to native feeders.
FarmHER Chris Nellis and her daughters navigate loss while carrying on a 300-year farm legacy, milking cows in upstate New York.
Mixed product pricing and rising milk supplies suggest margin management will remain critical as 2026 unfolds.
Meat stocks rose seasonally but remain below last year overall, while tighter butter inventories could support dairy prices, and belly stocks warrant close watch for pork markets.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

The Court may limit emergency tariff powers, complicating a key bargaining tool; ag could see shifts in input costs and export dynamics as China, Brazil, and India talks evolve.
David Klein with the American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers (ASFMRA) shares an end-of-harvest update and a peek at the farmland market in Central Illinois.
Host of RealAg Radio Shaun Haney discusses how the proposed reductions to agriculture programs in Canada’s new budget could affect research and support programs that farmers need.
Highly Pathogenic Avian Flu (HPAI) cases are rising. In the last week, seven commercial turkey, duck, and egg layer flocks were culled across five Midwest states and California.
A SCOTUS ruling on Trump’s tariffs could have long-term implications on the authority of future administrations to control U.S. trade policy, according to RFD-TV legal expert Roger McEowen.
Agriculture Shows
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.
Champions of Rural America is a half-hour dive into the legislative priorities for Rural America. Join us as we interview members of the Congressional Western Caucus to learn about efforts in Washington to preserve agriculture and tackles the most important topics in the ag industry on Champions of Rural America!
Featuring members of Congress, federal and state officials, ag and food leaders, farmers, and roundtable panelists for debates and discussions.