Across the globe, geopolitical events are hitting U.S. farmers where it hurts: fuel.
Tension between Israel and Iran has the oil markets spooked. Energy analysts were predicting a slow summer for fuel prices, but those estimates are gone.
The national average for a gallon of diesel has gone up $0.04 over the last week, holding around $3.48, but increases are not likely to stop there. GasBuddy’s Patrick DeHaan says diesel could climb $0.15-$0.25 per gallon in the coming days.
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Having a good read on fuel prices is a must during harvest, but one analyst says grain farmers should also be watching the crude oil markets.
Support policies that keep U.S. biofuels at the table—marine demand could materially lift corn grind, crush margins, and rural jobs.
China is not one of our top suppliers of cooking oil, according to USDA ERS data, but does export a lot of used cooking oil to the U.S. for biofuel production.
Treat storage as risk management and logistics, and budget to break even since export growth is unlikely to absorb bigger U.S. corn and soybean crops.
President Trump has long supported a direct line from Alberta’s oil fields to the Midwest.
Expect a steady corn grind and selective basis strength where exports and local blending stay active.
American Coalition for Ethanol’s Ron Lamberty shares the significance of California’s approval, opening up the country’s largest gasoline market to a cleaner-burning, often lower-cost fuel option.
Higher domestic rail tariffs and mixed capacity shifts will influence grain movement this harvest. Strong corn exports provide momentum, but logistics costs remain a critical factor.
