Across the globe, geopolitical events are hitting U.S. farmers where it hurts: fuel.
Tension between Israel and Iran has the oil markets spooked. Energy analysts were predicting a slow summer for fuel prices, but those estimates are gone.
The national average for a gallon of diesel has gone up $0.04 over the last week, holding around $3.48, but increases are not likely to stop there. GasBuddy’s Patrick DeHaan says diesel could climb $0.15-$0.25 per gallon in the coming days.
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The USDA’s February WASDE report looms as the CME Ag Economy Barometer shows declining farmer confidence, and more ag industry groups calling for swift policy action.
U.S. Senator Roger Marshall of Kansas discusses expected changes to the 45Z tax credit and what they could mean for agriculture and rural America.
Clearer 45Z rules favor U.S. oilseeds, but final RFS volumes remain critical to locking in demand.
Strong rail demand and higher fuel costs raise transportation risk even as barge and export flows stabilize.
Strong White House backing supports ethanol demand, but timing now hinges on Congress resolving procedural — at the same time as they push toward a spending bill to avert another federal government shutdown.
Lewis Williamson of HTS Commodities joined us with an update on the historic winter storm impacts and his outlook on today’s ag markets.
Year-round E15 remains on the table, but procedural caution and competing regional interests pushed action into a slower, negotiated path.
Strong production and rising stocks may pressure ethanol margins unless demand or exports continue to improve.
Without additional support, many soybean operations will continue to face financial stress as they prepare for the 2026 crop.
