Sluggish Trade Action: What is behind the ag trade deficit?

Ag exports have been sluggish recently, with nearly every ag group asking for more market access. USDA says the numbers prove a downturn.

As we’ve seen, imports have been increasing more than exports by value for a while, so that’s not a big surprise, just to see that we’ve got a nine percent increase over last year. The main driver of the slower exports in the last couple of years has been the strong dollar compared to foreign currencies, and so a lot of the places that compete with U.S. agricultural products on the global market can sell their products at a competitive price to foreign purchasers. So we have seen that downturn, though it seems to be leveling off, we’ve got a 1% increase over last year in terms of value,” said Bart Kenner.

Kenner has also been watching the numbers around bulk exports, saying they are a big part of the equation.

“Which by value make up 31% of the agricultural exports in the U.S. We see that bulk products are down by value 7% from last year, and a big part of that is the reduction of unit values, because we actually see by volume, substantial increases. Wheat is 23% higher than last year by volume, coarse grains, corn specifically, is 39% higher than last year by volume. But those categories, the wheat, which was up 23% by volume was down 2% by value from time last year. Corn, which was up 39% by volume, is only up 6% by value over this time last year from those decreased unit values.”

Ag trade will be a big focus of the incoming Trump Administration. The President-elect has already nominated his pick to be the U.S. Trade Rep. Jamieson Greer made his rounds with lawmakers several weeks ago. Senator Chuck Grassley says the two talked trade and the need for expanding market access for U.S. farmers.

Related Stories
Rabobank’s outlook signals a tightening margin environment, emphasizing the need for cost control, trade stability, and clearer policy signals heading into 2026.
Farm Bureau Economist Faith Parum discusses key outcomes from the U.S.-China trade agreement and the benefits of expanding trade across Southeast Asia.
Chris Bliley with Growth Energy discusses ongoing concerns about U.S. ethanol exports and the expansion of market access promised under the Phase One deal between the U.S. and China.
“It does not extinguish right away here — in any sort of sense — the real profitability concerns and people’s ability to pay bills and get to the other side of this in the very short term. This is where the skepticism builds.”
U.S. Senator Roger Marshall (R-KS) shares his perspective on the U.S.-China trade developments and their potential impact on American producers, farmers, and ranchers.
Rich Nelson, a commodity broker for Allendale Inc., joins us to break down what the U.S.-China trade agreement means for the ag economy.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Shaun Haney joined us to discuss Canada’s new trade agreement with China, the potential impact on farmers and exporters, and what it could mean for U.S.–Canada trade relations going forward.
National Corn Growers Association Chief Economist Krista Swanson discusses corn supply pressures, market fundamentals, policy considerations, and producer outlook for the year ahead.
The proposal signals a renewed push to offset tariff-driven losses, stabilize nutrition programs, and broaden eligibility for farm aid, though its path forward will depend on congressional negotiations.
The application deadline is March 8, 2026. The 1890 National Scholars Program aims to encourage students at 1890 land-grant universities to pursue careers in food, agriculture, and natural resource sciences.
Midland County Junior Livestock Show in West Texas features swine competition with top exhibitors, including Grand Champion Brinley Wilson, ahead of Saturday’s premium sale.