The markets are still working to digest all the trade action we have seen over the last month. Analysts say grain reports are still lagging behind that data, but economists with USDA say their livestock reports are starting to take that information into account.
“We assume ‘policy in place.’ So, tariffs that China has placed on us in retaliation, and the tariffs we have placed on them, are assumed to continue throughout the remainder of this marketing year and into next marketing year,” said Seth Meyer.
Corn is another area Meyer is watching. Last week’s WASDE report showed little changes, largely because exports to China have dropped, and the marketing year is nearly over.
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Tight cattle supplies continue to drive lower beef output despite heavier weights.
Weaker U.S. dairy prices come as value-added exports expand and ingredient inventories tighten, creating mixed market signals for producers.
While the agriculture industry hoped details on proposed “bridge” payments for farmers would be released this week, Ag Secretary Brook Rollins said the USDA is still working with the White House on the finer points.
China’s renewed purchases signal improving sorghum demand at a time when export markets are otherwise uneven. Meanwhile, agriculture groups across the U.S, Canada, and Mexico want to protect close trade relations.
Pressure on grain storage capacity and stronger export positioning are pushing more grain onto railroads, highways, and river systems as logistics become a key bottleneck this fall.
