The markets are still working to digest all the trade action we have seen over the last month. Analysts say grain reports are still lagging behind that data, but economists with USDA say their livestock reports are starting to take that information into account.
“We assume ‘policy in place.’ So, tariffs that China has placed on us in retaliation, and the tariffs we have placed on them, are assumed to continue throughout the remainder of this marketing year and into next marketing year,” said Seth Meyer.
Corn is another area Meyer is watching. Last week’s WASDE report showed little changes, largely because exports to China have dropped, and the marketing year is nearly over.
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The government reopens after 43 days. USDA resumes key reports, weighs farm aid, and watches China’s next move on U.S. soybean purchases.
Winter weather will challenge livestock producers working to rebuild their herds despite harsh conditions.
Friday’s release will be the first WASDE report in about two months, and early estimates indicate a corn surplus is still on the way.
The National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF) says recent wins in markets like Malaysia and Cambodia help farmers focus on production rather than trade barriers.
Export strength is concentrated in corn and wheat, while soybeans and sorghum lag, keeping basis and logistics dynamics highly commodity-specific into late fall.
