The markets are still working to digest all the trade action we have seen over the last month. Analysts say grain reports are still lagging behind that data, but economists with USDA say their livestock reports are starting to take that information into account.
“We assume ‘policy in place.’ So, tariffs that China has placed on us in retaliation, and the tariffs we have placed on them, are assumed to continue throughout the remainder of this marketing year and into next marketing year,” said Seth Meyer.
Corn is another area Meyer is watching. Last week’s WASDE report showed little changes, largely because exports to China have dropped, and the marketing year is nearly over.
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Corn and wheat exports remain supportive, but weaker soybean demand — especially from China — continues to pressure oilseed markets.
China’s pullback is hitting core U.S. commodities hard, reshaping export expectations for soybeans, cotton, grains, and livestock.
Slower grain movement may pressure basis, but falling diesel prices could help offset transportation costs.
