Soybean demand will suffer this year due to China, analysts warn

Economists are keeping a close eye on the soy market in the coming days. They say all of the back and forth with China has put demand on shaky ground.

“They’re doing all they can to go elsewhere. And we’ve got a rapid expansion going on in the world of soybean crushing, in skiing terms, we might be getting out over our skis, in terms of how much soybean oil we hope to produce relative to the mandates and tax credits that are boosting soy oil demand for renewable diesel,” said Ed Usset with University of Minnesota.

Usset wars it could be a tough couple of years for the soyb complex as they work out rebuilding demand.

Some traders are trying to look on the bright side. Frequent Market Day Report guest Brian Hoops says it all needs to be taken in context.

“Corn really isn’t, probably won’t be, affected by these tariffs all that much because only 15% of our crop is exported, and a lot of that goes to Mexico and will most likely reach an agreement with them. It’s soybeans, which we saw on Friday’s sharp losses, that could be impacted by these tariffs because over 40% of our soybean crop is exported, so subject to tariffs in one form or another.”

Hoops says h is hopeful other countries come to agreements with the U.S. in the coming weeks.

Related Stories
China-led demand continues to anchor soybean and sorghum exports despite weekly swings.
Securing Critical Water Resources for South Texas Agriculture
Economists are also closely watching how policy decisions in Washington could influence markets moving forward. Analysts say deferred futures for corn, soybeans, and wheat suggest markets are operating near break-even levels, not at prices that would encourage expanded production.
Winter Weather And Markets Reshape Agriculture Nationwide This Week
Falling livestock prices, combined with higher input costs, continue to squeeze farm profitability heading into 2026.
Strong rail demand and higher fuel costs raise transportation risk even as barge and export flows stabilize.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

House Agriculture Committee Chairman “GT” Thompson is pushing a “Farm Bill 2.0.”
University of Nebraska President Dr. Jeffrey Gold joined us with important insights on drug safety and rural health during the winter months.
Quinn Rutt of Upstream Ranch previews the Nebraska cattle operation’s 49th Annual Production Sale where buyers can expect standout sire groups and a blend of long-standing ranch practices with modern genetic selection.
Jim Matheson, CEO of the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association, provides new updates on winter storm impacts and the outlook for rural power reliability.
Jessi Grote from the AgriSafe Network provides winter safety guidance for rural communities still recovering from the recent winter storm.
CattleCon 2026 officially kicks off Tuesday and continues through Thursday, bringing producers together to shape the future of the U.S. cattle industry.
Agriculture Shows
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.
Champions of Rural America is a half-hour dive into the legislative priorities for Rural America. Join us as we interview members of the Congressional Western Caucus to learn about efforts in Washington to preserve agriculture and tackles the most important topics in the ag industry on Champions of Rural America!
Featuring members of Congress, federal and state officials, ag and food leaders, farmers, and roundtable panelists for debates and discussions.