Soybean demand will suffer this year due to China, analysts warn

Economists are keeping a close eye on the soy market in the coming days. They say all of the back and forth with China has put demand on shaky ground.

“They’re doing all they can to go elsewhere. And we’ve got a rapid expansion going on in the world of soybean crushing, in skiing terms, we might be getting out over our skis, in terms of how much soybean oil we hope to produce relative to the mandates and tax credits that are boosting soy oil demand for renewable diesel,” said Ed Usset with University of Minnesota.

Usset wars it could be a tough couple of years for the soyb complex as they work out rebuilding demand.

Some traders are trying to look on the bright side. Frequent Market Day Report guest Brian Hoops says it all needs to be taken in context.

“Corn really isn’t, probably won’t be, affected by these tariffs all that much because only 15% of our crop is exported, and a lot of that goes to Mexico and will most likely reach an agreement with them. It’s soybeans, which we saw on Friday’s sharp losses, that could be impacted by these tariffs because over 40% of our soybean crop is exported, so subject to tariffs in one form or another.”

Hoops says h is hopeful other countries come to agreements with the U.S. in the coming weeks.

Related Stories
Winter Weather, Drought Shape Early 2026 Farm Conditions
As domestic production and blending slowed, export demand remained a clear bright spot.
AFBF Economist Faith Parum provides analysis and perspective on the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program—what commodity growers should know and potential remedies for producers facing crop losses where that aid falls short.
Farmer Bridge payments are being used primarily to reduce debt and protect cash flow, not drive new spending. Curt Blades with the Association of Equipment Manufacturers joined us to provide insight into the ag equipment market and the factors influencing sales.
Rail strength is helping stabilize grain movement, but river and export slowdowns continue to limit overall logistics momentum.
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and U.S. Department of Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins today released the Dietary Guidelines for Americans, 2025–2030.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Farm CPA Paul Neiffer discusses how January’s WASDE report could impact ARC and PLC payments and updates on disaster relief programs as farmers navigate a challenging market environment.
Texas Commissioner of Agriculture Sid Miller joined us to discuss data center expansion, farmland preservation, rural economic impacts, and imminent cattle biosecurity concerns affecting agriculture today.
The Pennsylvania Farm Show continues through Saturday, wrapping up another successful year of celebrating agriculture in the Commonwealth.
Shaun Haney joined us to discuss Canada’s new trade agreement with China, the potential impact on farmers and exporters, and what it could mean for U.S.–Canada trade relations going forward.
National Corn Growers Association Chief Economist Krista Swanson discusses corn supply pressures, market fundamentals, policy considerations, and producer outlook for the year ahead.
The proposal signals a renewed push to offset tariff-driven losses, stabilize nutrition programs, and broaden eligibility for farm aid, though its path forward will depend on congressional negotiations.
Agriculture Shows
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.
Champions of Rural America is a half-hour dive into the legislative priorities for Rural America. Join us as we interview members of the Congressional Western Caucus to learn about efforts in Washington to preserve agriculture and tackles the most important topics in the ag industry on Champions of Rural America!
Featuring members of Congress, federal and state officials, ag and food leaders, farmers, and roundtable panelists for debates and discussions.