Soybean demand will suffer this year due to China, analysts warn

Economists are keeping a close eye on the soy market in the coming days. They say all of the back and forth with China has put demand on shaky ground.

“They’re doing all they can to go elsewhere. And we’ve got a rapid expansion going on in the world of soybean crushing, in skiing terms, we might be getting out over our skis, in terms of how much soybean oil we hope to produce relative to the mandates and tax credits that are boosting soy oil demand for renewable diesel,” said Ed Usset with University of Minnesota.

Usset wars it could be a tough couple of years for the soyb complex as they work out rebuilding demand.

Some traders are trying to look on the bright side. Frequent Market Day Report guest Brian Hoops says it all needs to be taken in context.

“Corn really isn’t, probably won’t be, affected by these tariffs all that much because only 15% of our crop is exported, and a lot of that goes to Mexico and will most likely reach an agreement with them. It’s soybeans, which we saw on Friday’s sharp losses, that could be impacted by these tariffs because over 40% of our soybean crop is exported, so subject to tariffs in one form or another.”

Hoops says h is hopeful other countries come to agreements with the U.S. in the coming weeks.

Related Stories
The U.S. has a bountiful corn supply, but markets are waiting for the January WASDE Report, which will include updated yield estimates.
Freight Softens as Producers Plan 2026 Budgets Nationwide
“I’m not sure where this bridge goes,” trader Brady Huck with Advanced Trading told RFD-TV News earlier this week.
CoBank’s 2026 Year Ahead Report cites global grain oversupply, easing inflation, rate cuts, and major data center growth that could reshape rural America.
Ethanol output softened, but underlying supply-and-demand trends indicate stable longer-term use despite short-term volatility in blending and exports.
Strong Farm Credit finances help cushion producers, but prolonged low crop margins could strain renewals in 2026.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Tennessee Rep. John Rose joined us to pay tribute to his friend and colleague, Rep. Doug LaMalfa, a true Champion of Rural America.
China continues to buy U.S. soybeans toward its 12 MMT commitment, as analysts cite data gaps, delivery timing questions, and muted market reaction.
FarmHER Nikki Boxler, aka The Maple Farmer, blends tradition with innovation, tapping into a bold new future for maple syrup.
As the new year begins, both farmers and rural families are taking stock of their finances and planning ahead for 2026.
Trade uncertainty—especially regarding soybeans—continues to weigh on future outlooks, even as farm finances and land values remain resilient.
Sen. Deb Fischer reintroduces the HAULS Act to update hours-of-service exemptions and definitions affecting livestock and agricultural haulers. She joins us on Market Day Report to share more about her proposed legislation.
Agriculture Shows
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.
Champions of Rural America is a half-hour dive into the legislative priorities for Rural America. Join us as we interview members of the Congressional Western Caucus to learn about efforts in Washington to preserve agriculture and tackles the most important topics in the ag industry on Champions of Rural America!
Featuring members of Congress, federal and state officials, ag and food leaders, farmers, and roundtable panelists for debates and discussions.