NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — Soybean prices tend to follow repeatable seasonal patterns that can help producers evaluate marketing risk and opportunity throughout the year. While prices are influenced by many factors, seasonality provides a baseline expectation of how prices often behave as supplies build and draw down, informing timing decisions beyond day-to-day volatility.
Research summarized by Dr. Grant Gardner, Assistant Extension Professor at the University of Kentucky, examines national soybean cash prices from 2010 to 2025 using a seasonal price index. Results show prices are typically weakest near harvest, strengthen through winter and spring, and often peak in late spring or early summer before easing ahead of new-crop supplies.
From an operational standpoint, this pattern suggests post-harvest marketing opportunities frequently outperform harvest-time sales. However, not every year follows the average path, and producers must weigh seasonal tendencies against current market signals.
Only three of the past 15 years—2015, 2019, and 2024—saw soybean prices stronger at harvest than later in the marketing year, driven by factors like tight stocks, weather risk, or trade uncertainty.
Seasonality is not a rule but a decision-making tool that works best when combined with fundamentals, cash flow needs, and risk tolerance.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Seasonal price patterns can inform soybean marketing timing, particularly when harvest prices appear unusually strong or weak.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Often overlooked, cotton wholesalers act as stabilizers during market stress, translating fragmented retail demand into workable production programs for mills and manufacturers.
January 30, 2026 08:00 AM
·
Strong blending demand continues to support ethanol use even as production and exports fluctuate.
January 30, 2026 07:00 AM
·
AFBF Economist Danny Munch shares a closer look at the dairy market and the forces impacting producers today.
January 29, 2026 02:52 PM
·
Eliza Petry joins the RFD News team with a strong connection to agriculture and a commitment to covering the people and issues that matter most to rural America.
January 29, 2026 01:31 PM
·
Farm CPA Paul Neiffer helps producers navigate farm program payments and understand the key details farmers need to know.
January 29, 2026 01:25 PM
·
Early indications suggest the U.S. cattle industry may be nearing the end of its liquidation phase. Oklahoma State University livestock economist Dr. Derrell Peel says the industry could be at or near the cyclical low.
January 29, 2026 12:44 PM
·
Beef x Dairy cattle with strong genetics and documentation are earning prices comparable to native feeders.
January 29, 2026 08:00 AM
·
Roger McEowen explains the concept of “lawfare” — the use of legal systems to intimidate or financially exhaust an opponent — which grew into a central theme of U.S. ag law in 2025.
January 29, 2026 07:00 AM
·
Justin Wheeler with the American Society of Farm Managers & Rural Appraisers joined us with insight into current farmland values and what to watch in the year ahead.
January 28, 2026 02:42 PM
·
