NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — Soybean prices tend to follow repeatable seasonal patterns that can help producers evaluate marketing risk and opportunity throughout the year. While prices are influenced by many factors, seasonality provides a baseline expectation of how prices often behave as supplies build and draw down, informing timing decisions beyond day-to-day volatility.
Research summarized by Dr. Grant Gardner, Assistant Extension Professor at the University of Kentucky, examines national soybean cash prices from 2010 to 2025 using a seasonal price index. Results show prices are typically weakest near harvest, strengthen through winter and spring, and often peak in late spring or early summer before easing ahead of new-crop supplies.
From an operational standpoint, this pattern suggests post-harvest marketing opportunities frequently outperform harvest-time sales. However, not every year follows the average path, and producers must weigh seasonal tendencies against current market signals.
Only three of the past 15 years—2015, 2019, and 2024—saw soybean prices stronger at harvest than later in the marketing year, driven by factors like tight stocks, weather risk, or trade uncertainty.
Seasonality is not a rule but a decision-making tool that works best when combined with fundamentals, cash flow needs, and risk tolerance.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Seasonal price patterns can inform soybean marketing timing, particularly when harvest prices appear unusually strong or weak.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Farmers await concrete trade commitments from China. Until then, export prospects for soybeans, corn, and sorghum remain uncertain against strong South American competition.
September 16, 2025 11:04 AM
·
U.S. trade talks with China resume, but meat industry leaders say dealing with shifting demand and market uncertainty is nothing new in this side of the ag sector.
September 15, 2025 12:57 PM
·
Year-round sales of E-15 are another major topic on Capitol Hill, which, according to Rep. Adrian Smith (R-NE), is one issue up for debate this session with significant bipartisan support.
September 15, 2025 12:09 PM
·
American Soybean Association President Caleb Ragland joins us to share his reaction to September’s WASDE and discuss the trade uncertainty between China and his industry.
September 12, 2025 02:13 PM
·
Bottom line: Despite all the efforts advocates make, workers are still making less money.
September 12, 2025 01:33 PM
·
Harvested acres are estimated at 90.0 million, making this year’s corn crop one of the largest since the 1930s.
September 12, 2025 12:38 PM
·
U.S. producers are holding off on equipment investments amid financial pressure, market uncertainty, a rising demand for diesel, and growing desperation for trade wins.
September 12, 2025 11:18 AM
·
Farm CPA Paul Neiffer joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report for a closer look at how Trump’s Big, Beautiful Bill changes to base acres and potential impacts on future ARC and PLC payments.
September 11, 2025 01:36 PM
·
As the White House works to close the trade gap, patience is wearing thin for some lawmakers. Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA) says farmers are getting backed into a corner.
September 11, 2025 11:26 AM
·
