NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — Soybean prices tend to follow repeatable seasonal patterns that can help producers evaluate marketing risk and opportunity throughout the year. While prices are influenced by many factors, seasonality provides a baseline expectation of how prices often behave as supplies build and draw down, informing timing decisions beyond day-to-day volatility.
Research summarized by Dr. Grant Gardner, Assistant Extension Professor at the University of Kentucky, examines national soybean cash prices from 2010 to 2025 using a seasonal price index. Results show prices are typically weakest near harvest, strengthen through winter and spring, and often peak in late spring or early summer before easing ahead of new-crop supplies.
From an operational standpoint, this pattern suggests post-harvest marketing opportunities frequently outperform harvest-time sales. However, not every year follows the average path, and producers must weigh seasonal tendencies against current market signals.
Only three of the past 15 years—2015, 2019, and 2024—saw soybean prices stronger at harvest than later in the marketing year, driven by factors like tight stocks, weather risk, or trade uncertainty.
Seasonality is not a rule but a decision-making tool that works best when combined with fundamentals, cash flow needs, and risk tolerance.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Seasonal price patterns can inform soybean marketing timing, particularly when harvest prices appear unusually strong or weak.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Analysts say a Supreme Court decision on tariffs could reshape protein markets, strain U.S.-China trade, and force farmers to rethink global demand strategies.
January 21, 2026 12:03 PM
·
Corn and wheat exports remain a demand bright spot, while soybeans are transitioning into a more typical late-winter shipping slowdown.
January 21, 2026 10:36 AM
·
Despite rising costs and growing food insecurity, meat demand remained strong in 2025 as higher-income consumers offset cutbacks elsewhere. Economists break down the K-shaped economy, upcoming USDA cattle reports, livestock production outlooks, and renewed debate over beef imports and country-of-origin labeling heading into 2026.
January 20, 2026 02:47 PM
·
From rising trade tensions in Europe to a pending Supreme Court decision on tariffs and shifting demand from China, global trade policy spearheaded by President Donald Trump continues to shape the outlook for U.S. agriculture—adding uncertainty as farmers navigate another volatile year.
January 20, 2026 01:14 PM
·
The Surface Transportation Board rejects the proposed Norfolk Southern–Union Pacific merger, prompting concerns from agricultural shippers about rail consolidation, service reliability, and higher transportation costs.
January 20, 2026 12:25 PM
·
Livestock strength is carrying the farm economy, while crop margins remain tight and increasingly dependent on risk management and financial discipline.
January 19, 2026 05:00 PM
·
Freight volatility and route selection remain critical to soybean export margins and competitiveness.
January 19, 2026 04:00 PM
·
Strong balance sheets still matter, but liquidity, planning, and lender relationships are critical as ag credit tightens, according to analysis from AgAmerica Lending.
January 19, 2026 03:00 PM
·
Protein-driven dairy growth is boosting beef supply potential, creating an opening to support rural jobs and ground beef availability.
January 19, 2026 01:00 PM
·
