As we look toward the upcoming growing season, soybean trade and pricing are key topics of discussion among ag economists.
With global markets in flux and trade uncertain, especially with China, there is much focus on how U.S. producers will navigate these challenges.
Ag economist Joe Janzen from the University of Illinois provided insight into the soybean market, particularly exports and pricing.
“USDA has a pretty level-headed view of global ag commodity trade. And they’re not sort of, I think not overreacting to sort of the worst-case scenario of, you know, a hundred percent-plus tariffs, which would essentially, you know, shut down trade between the United States and China for many products.”
Janzen also notes a slight rise in the forecast for average farm prices, reflecting tighter supply conditions due to lower planted acreage. He says that while prices are expected to rise, there is still significant uncertainty because of global production factors, including crops from South America.
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Economists are also closely watching how policy decisions in Washington could influence markets moving forward. Analysts say deferred futures for corn, soybeans, and wheat suggest markets are operating near break-even levels, not at prices that would encourage expanded production.
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Traders say that shift could eventually prompt the USDA to scale back soybean export projections, noting the outlook differs greatly for other grain commodities.
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Without additional support, many soybean operations will continue to face financial stress as they prepare for the 2026 crop.
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Decoupled base acres may amplify income inequality and distort planting decisions as farm program payments increase.
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From tariff talks in Europe to SCOTUS uncertainty and rising farm losses, analysts say policy and global supply will shape grain markets in the year ahead.
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Large Brazilian crops heighten downside price risk if the weather allows production to reach projected levels.
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