NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — Soybean futures rallied Wednesday as strength in soybean oil pulled the broader oilseed complex higher, signaling that energy and biofuel expectations — not traditional supply-and-demand factors — were the primary drivers. The move was confirmed by parallel gains in canola, reinforcing that the rally was oil-led rather than soybean-specific.
The advance followed weeks of heavy bearish positioning in soybean oil tied to uncertainty around renewable fuels policy. While no new federal announcements were made, markets appeared to back away from worst-case assumptions on biofuel demand, prompting short covering and renewed buying interest in veg oil markets.
Soybean oil stocks remain historically tight, and renewable diesel capacity continues to expand, keeping long-term demand expectations intact. Stable crude oil prices also supported the move, preventing margin pressure from intensifying across the biofuel sector.
Canola strength added confidence that global vegetable oil balances are tightening, not just U.S. policy sentiment. Meal markets lagged, underscoring that the rally was not tied to feed demand or export sales.
Whether the rally holds will depend on continued strength in global veg oil markets and clearer policy direction in the coming weeks.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Oil-led rallies can move soybean prices quickly, but sustained gains will require continued strength in soybean oil and broader biofuel demand signals.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Heavy rains are wreaking havoc on Argentina’s farmland, leaving nearly 4 million acres at risk and delaying corn and soybean plantings in one of the world’s top grain export regions.
November 20, 2025 01:21 PM
·
Bangladesh recently pledged to purchase 700,000 tons of U.S. wheat and has also become a new buyer of American soybeans.
November 20, 2025 12:53 PM
·
The White House is now preparing to restore an Endangered Species Act (ESA) rule from the first Trump Administration.
November 20, 2025 11:46 AM
·
Ethanol exports are expanding on strong demand from Canada and Europe, while DDGS shipments remain broad-based and supportive for feed markets.
November 20, 2025 11:12 AM
·
Mary-Thomas Hart, with the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, discusses the latest WOTUS developments and their implications for agriculture.
November 19, 2025 03:05 PM
·
A massive rail merger could significantly impact North American agriculture and trade flows.
November 19, 2025 12:46 PM
·
Urea and phosphate see the biggest price relief from tariff exemptions, but nitrogen markets remain tight, and spring demand will still dictate pricing momentum.
November 19, 2025 12:31 PM
·
Cattle and hog supplies continue to tighten while dairy output expands, creating a split outlook in which red-meat prices soften and milk values come under pressure from larger supplies.
November 18, 2025 03:02 PM
·
Shawn Haney, Host of RealAg Radio on Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147, joined us on Tuesday’s Market Day Report with the latest news from Canada impacting the ag sector.
November 18, 2025 12:47 PM
·
