NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Rainfall patterns across the South have become less predictable. That shift is reshaping how Pasture, Rangeland, and Forage (PRF) insurance performs, according to new research from University of Arkansas economists. PRF remains the most widely used federal crop insurance product by acreage.
While the program itself has not changed, rainfall trends behind the USDA Risk Management Agency (RMA) Rainfall Index have created new gaps between expected and actual risk in many counties. A baseline analysis of 2017–2024 performance shows that most southern grids maintain relatively stable loss ratios below 1.0, but also reveals apparent differences across states when human enrollment choices are removed.
Economists found that even minor adjustments in interval strategy can meaningfully shift outcomes. When intervals were selected using a method that accounts for increasing rainfall inconsistency, mean loss ratios edged higher, but the variation among grids widened significantly.
States such as Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia showed more areas reaching or exceeding the “1.0” loss ratio benchmark under the strategy, meaning PRF protection becomes more dependable when intervals align with months when rainfall risk is most volatile. Meanwhile, states like Kentucky and Tennessee showed more minor changes, reflecting steadier moisture patterns.
Together, the baseline and adjusted maps demonstrate the importance of selecting intervals thoughtfully rather than repeating past choices out of habit. While every farm’s seasonality differs, producers benefit from studying Rainfall Index values for their grid, noting years with declining trends or higher variability.
Enrollment for the coming year closes December 1, giving producers a limited time to evaluate interval combinations that better reflect today’s rainfall uncertainty and their forage production cycle.
