“Surprised they aren’t higher": Economists are caught off guard by the lack of fertilizer price action

Fertilizer costs are also top of mind during geopolitical turmoil.

Josh Linville with StoneX says the numbers are telling an interesting story right now.

“Truthfully, I have been surprised prices haven’t been higher. What other things have been keeping a lid on these fertilizer prices from going higher than where they are today is lower grain prices. Obviously, farmers everywhere are talking about the fact that grain prices are not great, they’re not attractive, and so that is keeping the lid because I think the fertilizer industry knows the farmers just can’t buy these values, certainly not ahead of next spring.”

Fertilizer prices have been relatively steady over the last few days. Analysts with DTN found no significant moves last week, with anhydrous falling in price over the last month. Seven of the eight major types are more expensive than a year ago, with urea holding 25 percent above 2024. Potash, on the other hand, is lower in price, falling around seven percent on the year.

Related Stories
As farmers and ranchers navigate rising input costs, lawmakers are considering a roughly $15 billion aid package to help, which would be tied to the spending bill for the war with Iran.
Reported results include stronger in-season nitrogen response, average yield gains of more than seven bushels per acre and more than $18 per acre in net return.
RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney explains how conflict in the Middle East is affecting spring planting as farmers navigate the evolving situation.
The Mosaic Company’s Keith Byerly shares smart input investment strategies, fertilizer considerations, and ways growers can manage risk heading into the 2026 growing season.
Energy risks could reshape global ag trade flows.
Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz disrupt fertilizer shipments, raising costs and creating uncertainty for U.S. farmers ahead of planting season.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

The USDA is working with 14 different states, including Georgia, to develop and implement block grants to address the unique disaster recovery needs for each state.
The decline in production marks the second consecutive year of contraction in the U.S. turkey industry.
“Those could’ve easily been our beans going over there. It goes to show that if that opportunity is there, China would be willing to buy.”
We caught up with Karen Braun, Chief Market Analyst at Zaner Ag Hedge, at the Women in Agribusiness to discuss the data behind commodity trading.
Weston Brown joined us on Monday in the RFD-TV Studios in Nashville to share how he is preparing for the upcoming National FFA Convention & Expo.
Missouri Director of Agriculture Chris Chinn joined us Monday to share highlights from Secretary Brooke Rollins’ visit and her perspective on USDA’s new initiatives.