“Surprised they aren’t higher": Economists are caught off guard by the lack of fertilizer price action

Fertilizer costs are also top of mind during geopolitical turmoil.

Josh Linville with StoneX says the numbers are telling an interesting story right now.

“Truthfully, I have been surprised prices haven’t been higher. What other things have been keeping a lid on these fertilizer prices from going higher than where they are today is lower grain prices. Obviously, farmers everywhere are talking about the fact that grain prices are not great, they’re not attractive, and so that is keeping the lid because I think the fertilizer industry knows the farmers just can’t buy these values, certainly not ahead of next spring.”

Fertilizer prices have been relatively steady over the last few days. Analysts with DTN found no significant moves last week, with anhydrous falling in price over the last month. Seven of the eight major types are more expensive than a year ago, with urea holding 25 percent above 2024. Potash, on the other hand, is lower in price, falling around seven percent on the year.

Related Stories
Farm legal expert Roger McEowen discusses a new rail antitrust case in Kansas and its potential implications for farmers as rail upgrades signal continued export-driven demand for logistics.
Surging energy markets are quickly becoming a cost story for U.S. agriculture as crude oil climbs on supply fears tied to the Middle East conflict.
Fertilizer investigation may impact input costs and margins.
New research shows that most farmers do not have a formal resiliency plan in place. Devin Fuhrman highlights how Nationwide’s Farm Risk Ready initiative supports farmers in building stronger, more resilient operations.
ASFMRA’s George Baird shares insight on spring planting progress, acreage trends, and the financial factors influencing Mid-South farmers this season.
Geopolitical risk is rapidly increasing fertilizer price volatility before planting.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Dr. Jeffrey Gold provides insights on supporting aging populations in rural communities on this week’s Rural Health Matters segment.
OHFB President Bill Patterson shares an update from Washington on the group’s policy priorities and the issues shaping agriculture ahead of the 2026 planting season.
Ben Kurtzman with American Farmland Trust discusses the growing pressure on farmland and ranchland and the steps being taken to help conserve farms and ranches across the country ,as unrest in the Middle East adds more obstacles for producers.
NRECA CEO Jim Matheson warns that rising electricity demand from AI and data centers could strain the grid and affect rural electric cooperatives if U.S. power infrastructure cannot keep up.