Both the U.S. and China have announced a temporary pause in tariffs for the next 90 days, and the deal is moving markets.
The announcement comes after a weekend of meetings in Switzerland, the Treasury Secretary, and the U.S. Trade Representative. China will reduce its tariffs from 125 percent to 10 percent. In return, the U.S. will lower tariffs on most Chinese goods from 145 percent to 30 percent.
The DOW, S&P, and NASDAQ futures are all up significantly this morning.
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Removing the 40% duty sharply lowers U.S. beef import costs on beef, coffee, fertilizer and fruit, and restores Brazil’s competitiveness during a period of tight domestic supply.
Bangladesh recently pledged to purchase 700,000 tons of U.S. wheat and has also become a new buyer of American soybeans.
Urea and phosphate see the biggest price relief from tariff exemptions, but nitrogen markets remain tight, and spring demand will still dictate pricing momentum.
Firm live cow prices and shifting dairy-side culling suggest cull cow values may stay stronger than usual this winter despite weaker cow beef cutout trends.
China still has a long way to go before it meets its commitment to buy 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans this year.
Tariff relief may soften grocery prices, but it also intensifies competition for U.S. fruit, vegetable, and beef producers as cheaper imports regain market share.
U.S. Trade officials announced new deals with El Salvador, Guatemala, Ecuador, and Argentina, as well as a steep reduction in tariffs on Swiss imports.
China’s cost advantage with Brazilian soybeans and vague public messaging leave U.S. export prospects uncertain heading into winter.
With the U.S.–Vietnam agreement nearing signature, U.S. cotton, corn, and soybean exporters could lock in new demand lanes just as global supply shifts.
