The ag trade deficit “is a real thing” and shouldn’t be ignored, ag economists say

While tariffs have dominated the headlines recently, ag economists say the trade deficit is not something to ignore.

“Yeah, we do have a trade deficit overall in the U.S. economy, and we also have a trade deficit in agricultural and food products. The deficit of agriculture and food products is a story of very different worlds. On the one hand, we have a big surplus in major commodities like wheat, corn, soybeans, cotton, pork, and many other products, but we have a deficit in things like fruits, vegetables, and many processed products. So, again, those have impacts on different parts of U.S. agriculture, and to try and address that deficit is a high priority of the current administration,” said Pat Westhoff, director of the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri.

Westhoff says while the tariff situation has calmed, they are still having a role in market action. He says there is no question that China will now look elsewhere for commodities like soybeans.

“With the current tariffs that are put in place by China, over 125 percent, that makes it almost impossible for the U.S. to sell soybeans to China. That market will be dominated even more than it already is by Brazil and a couple of other major players outside of the US. So, then the question becomes whether we were able to pick up enough markets elsewhere in the world to offset the loss of the Chinese market. A lot of people are hoping that the current very high levels of tariffs will not persist, that there be some sort of agreement that will at least bring those tariff levels down if not eliminate them entirely.”

Progress could be on the horizon. Bloomberg reports Chinese officials will come to the table if certain demands are met. So far, more than 100 countries have indicated they are willing to negotiate.

Related Stories
Weaker housing demand is putting more pressure on lumber and timber markets.
Soybeans remain caught up in ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations.
Apparel orders are shifting among overseas suppliers as importers look to offset tariff costs.
Both sides say there is little room left for compromise as negotiations continue.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Nutrien eKonomics explains how farmers can rebuild low soil potassium, maintain levels above the critical value, and plan fertilizer applications.
Weaker pork demand and rising feed costs could put more pressure on producer margins in 2027.
The proposal would require data centers and other large users to cover infrastructure costs tied to their projects.
Iowa processors are bringing in soybeans by rail as wet weather slows harvest.
U.S. agricultural exports to China have fallen sharply as producers wait for tariff relief.
South Dakota research found grazing can help cover crops generate positive returns sooner.
President Donald Trump plans to sign an executive order to lower diesel costs, including expanding access to tax-exempt dyed diesel as farmers face high harvest fuel prices.
Improved water levels are allowing more vessels and deeper loads through the Panama Canal.
Winning bids averaged about $1.3 million as demand for 2027 grain rail capacity increased.
Rising Treasury yields could keep farm borrowing costs elevated heading into 2027.
Mid-Atlantic farmers are locking in 2027 fertilizer contracts now, as nitrogen imports and market uncertainty make input-cost planning a key risk-management concern.
Farmers and ranchers can apply through local Natural Resources Conservation Service offices using their state’s fiscal 2027 ranking deadlines.