The ag trade deficit “is a real thing” and shouldn’t be ignored, ag economists say

While tariffs have dominated the headlines recently, ag economists say the trade deficit is not something to ignore.

“Yeah, we do have a trade deficit overall in the U.S. economy, and we also have a trade deficit in agricultural and food products. The deficit of agriculture and food products is a story of very different worlds. On the one hand, we have a big surplus in major commodities like wheat, corn, soybeans, cotton, pork, and many other products, but we have a deficit in things like fruits, vegetables, and many processed products. So, again, those have impacts on different parts of U.S. agriculture, and to try and address that deficit is a high priority of the current administration,” said Pat Westhoff, director of the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri.

Westhoff says while the tariff situation has calmed, they are still having a role in market action. He says there is no question that China will now look elsewhere for commodities like soybeans.

“With the current tariffs that are put in place by China, over 125 percent, that makes it almost impossible for the U.S. to sell soybeans to China. That market will be dominated even more than it already is by Brazil and a couple of other major players outside of the US. So, then the question becomes whether we were able to pick up enough markets elsewhere in the world to offset the loss of the Chinese market. A lot of people are hoping that the current very high levels of tariffs will not persist, that there be some sort of agreement that will at least bring those tariff levels down if not eliminate them entirely.”

Progress could be on the horizon. Bloomberg reports Chinese officials will come to the table if certain demands are met. So far, more than 100 countries have indicated they are willing to negotiate.

Related Stories
Higher ocean freight raises export costs just as global grain competition intensifies.
Buying a real Christmas tree directly supports U.S. farmers facing rising import competition, long production cycles, and weather-driven risks.
WTO gauges point to agricultural raw materials trade growing more slowly than overall goods, reinforcing the need to manage export risk and monitor policy shifts closely.
While the agriculture industry hoped details on proposed “bridge” payments for farmers would be released this week, Ag Secretary Brook Rollins said the USDA is still working with the White House on the finer points.
China’s renewed purchases signal improving sorghum demand at a time when export markets are otherwise uneven. Meanwhile, agriculture groups across the U.S, Canada, and Mexico want to protect close trade relations.
Despite the need for swift action, many ag lawmakers and industry groups argue that farm aid alone will likely not be sufficient to help farmers without improved trade relations with China.
One trader said the products entering the U.S. are primarily grind and trim, noting that the volume and type of beef, on its own, should not cause a major disruption. However, he says fund traders are reacting heavily to headlines rather than market realities.
Shaun Haney, host of RealAg Radio, provides the latest insight into the timing, expectations, and broader considerations of the potential aid package, despite increasing exports to China.
Higher rail tariffs and tighter Canadian supplies will keep oat transportation costs firm into 2026.