While tariffs have dominated the headlines recently, ag economists say the trade deficit is not something to ignore.
“Yeah, we do have a trade deficit overall in the U.S. economy, and we also have a trade deficit in agricultural and food products. The deficit of agriculture and food products is a story of very different worlds. On the one hand, we have a big surplus in major commodities like wheat, corn, soybeans, cotton, pork, and many other products, but we have a deficit in things like fruits, vegetables, and many processed products. So, again, those have impacts on different parts of U.S. agriculture, and to try and address that deficit is a high priority of the current administration,” said Pat Westhoff, director of the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri.
Westhoff says while the tariff situation has calmed, they are still having a role in market action. He says there is no question that China will now look elsewhere for commodities like soybeans.
“With the current tariffs that are put in place by China, over 125 percent, that makes it almost impossible for the U.S. to sell soybeans to China. That market will be dominated even more than it already is by Brazil and a couple of other major players outside of the US. So, then the question becomes whether we were able to pick up enough markets elsewhere in the world to offset the loss of the Chinese market. A lot of people are hoping that the current very high levels of tariffs will not persist, that there be some sort of agreement that will at least bring those tariff levels down if not eliminate them entirely.”
Progress could be on the horizon. Bloomberg reports Chinese officials will come to the table if certain demands are met. So far, more than 100 countries have indicated they are willing to negotiate.
Traders say that shift could eventually prompt the USDA to scale back soybean export projections, noting the outlook differs greatly for other grain commodities.
January 30, 2026 01:13 PM
·
USDA Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Luke Lindberg joined us with a recap of the Malaysia trade mission and a look at USDA’s broader trade strategy moving forward.
January 28, 2026 01:49 PM
·
From tariff talks in Europe to SCOTUS uncertainty and rising farm losses, analysts say policy and global supply will shape grain markets in the year ahead.
January 22, 2026 12:40 PM
·
Analysts say a Supreme Court decision on tariffs could reshape protein markets, strain U.S.-China trade, and force farmers to rethink global demand strategies.
January 21, 2026 12:03 PM
·
President Donald Trump speaks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, addressing SNAP spending, tariff threats against Europe, market reactions, and the upcoming USMCA review.
January 21, 2026 11:50 AM
·
Corn growers are turning to ethanol, E15 expansion, and export markets to help absorb record supplies and stabilize prices. Farm leaders discuss low-carbon ethanol demand, flex-fuel vehicle challenges, input costs, and the role of USMCA as producers look for market relief in the year ahead.
January 20, 2026 02:04 PM
·
From rising trade tensions in Europe to a pending Supreme Court decision on tariffs and shifting demand from China, global trade policy spearheaded by President Donald Trump continues to shape the outlook for U.S. agriculture—adding uncertainty as farmers navigate another volatile year.
January 20, 2026 01:14 PM
·
Freight volatility and route selection remain critical to soybean export margins and competitiveness.
January 19, 2026 04:00 PM
·
While short-term volatility remains a risk, softer ocean freight rates in 2026 could improve export margins.
January 18, 2026 12:00 PM
·
