The ag trade deficit may set yet another record; ag economy may be softening

Low commodity prices are dealing another blow to the ag trade deficit. USDA is now preparing for the third straight year of losses.

The Department expects the ag trade deficit to hit $42.5 billion when the fiscal year starts October 1st, which is a drop of $4 billion from this year, and marks the third straight year of declines since hitting a record low in 2022. Ag imports are expected to increase by around $8 billion.

The economy is tightening its grip on the ag industry. The Chicago Fed says farmland values are slowing in their district, and credit challenges are starting to appear. Fed policy advisers say repayment rates are also starting to slow.

Despite the challenges, they say farm balance sheets have been strong overall, even with less working capital.

Related Stories
Dave Walton with the American Soybean Association joins us to discuss China’s new ag purchase commitments, E15 policy concerns, and spring planting conditions.
Jenna Stanton with the United States Cattlemen’s Association joins us to discuss beef import concerns, cattle market signals, and the latest developments surrounding U.S. beef trade.
RealAg Radio Host Shaun Haney joins us to discuss the latest U.S.-China ag trade agreements, market reaction, and what producers should watch moving forward.
For farm country, that caution can mean higher costs, slower service, and less local investment.
The latest USDA price projections are raising new questions about crop payments and ARC calculations.
Rayburn Electric Cooperative’s Chris Anderson discusses rapid AI data center expansion, mounting pressure on the electric grid, and impacts on agriculture and rural communities.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Federal officials are signaling a more aggressive push on beef packer concentration, but any direct market impact will depend on what the investigation actually finds.
Higher freight rates and potential service disruptions are key concerns for agriculture, which relies heavily on rail to move commodities.
Wyoming cowboy and Dusty Vaquero Days founder J.B. Zielke joins us to preview his upcoming event in Gillette and to highlight the festival’s celebration of cowboy culture through music and community events.
Members from across the state will gather for competitions, workshops and leadership opportunities.
DOJ and USDA investigate beef industry concentration, with Big Four packers under scrutiny and a major settlement announcement expected later this week.
Growth Energy CEO Emily Skor joins us to discuss the uncertain path for year-round E15 sales and the next steps as the issue heads toward a standalone House vote after it was stripped from the Farm Bill.