The supply of U.S. dairy may grow to outpace demand

“We’re going to have 360 million pounds of cheese that do not have a home.”

The U.S. dairy industry is seeing major growth outside of production drops in California, but supply may grow to outpace demand.

Despite that concern, one expert says that there are still opportunities for higher milk prices in the near future.

According to Mike North, “The reality of bringing back higher prices is going to mean two things. Number one, we’re going to have to shorten up supply, and we’re continuing to ramp up more and more production, and we have the cows to do it. So, as we talk about cheese production, the amount of new facilities that are coming online right now is such that, by the end of the year, we’re going to have 360 million pounds of cheese that do not have a home. So, we have to grow exports or domestic demand exponentially greater to get ahead of that supply curve and elevate prices to higher levels.”

North says that another big challenge, which could potentially slow down milk price growth, is tariffs.

“What will Mexico do? How will they respond? We’re already seeing pressure out of Canada. Anything that was covered under USMCA is still flying through and doing okay, but Canada’s ready and willing to throw more tariffs at us on any and all ag products. That was their immediate response when these went live back in March,” he notes.

According to the National Milk Producers Federation, esports help fill the gaps in domestic dairy consumption, growth, and promotion.
In fact, one out of every six gallons of milk produced by a U.S. dairy farmer is turned into dairy products and shipped overseas.

Related Stories
According to the new report, seven out of ten rural bankers support President Trump’s recent trade steps with China, expressing cautious optimism about future export potential.
Laramie Sandquist discusses Nationwide Agribusiness’s commitment to grain bin safety initiatives, including providing life-saving equipment and training to fire departments across the country.
Brooks York with Agri-Sompo discusses how this year’s pricing period played out and what it could mean for farmers heading into the end of the season.
An import lag for ground beef will likely look different than last year’s egg shortage. The difference comes down to biosecurity and market flexibility.
The WASDE/Crop Production combo will be the first full read on supply, demand, and yield that could move basis and hedging plans since the government shutdown more than a month ago.