There’s trouble brewing under the surface of ag markets, farm creditors warn

The ag markets are holding steady as lawmakers work to keep the government running. As farmers look ahead to next year, farm creditors say inputs may be cheaper but that relief is hiding a bigger problem.

“We’re seeing large declines in expenses for feed, fertilizer, and fuels, although there are still some increasing costs for things such as interest on debt or on labor costs. Now at an aggregate level, we can look at this and say that liquidity and profitability ratios for the sector have been largely stable. Ratios are improving, but these aggregate stories really are masking sub-sector strain,” said Greg Lyons.

Crop receipts are expected to be down $32 billion from last year. It is one reason multiple ag groups have been pushing lawmakers to get emergency aid to farmers.

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Federal aid helps, but producers will bear most of the losses. Balance sheets may look stable, but margins remain fragile without policy support.