Tipping Of The Scales: The U.S. ag trade deficit gap will shrink next year, according to experts

USDA says that the gap in the U.S. ag trade deficit will shrink next year.

The department’s latest trade forecast shows that the U.S. ag trade deficit will drop to $37 billion next year, which is lower than their previous estimates and down from nearly $44 billion this year. Last year, the U.S. ag trade deficit was $32 billion, and $17 billion in 2023.

USDA’s research arm shows the latest adjustment comes as exports are coming in hotter than expected. It is preparing for $173 billion in ag exports next year, adjusted up from their $169 billion estimate during the summer.

Exports are the lifeblood of many U.S. farming operations, and recent numbers show just how much they impact the overall economy.

USDA numbers show that in 2023, all U.S. ag exports generated $362 billion in economic output. Non-bulk exports reached $101 billion, generating an additional $120 billion.
For each dollar of exported ag products, USDA says it generated $2.06 in domestic activity.

USDA economists took a look at production costs over the last season.

Corn this year cost just shy of $809 an acre. Next year, they estimate those costs to hit $916. Soybeans cost this year ran $658 per acre, with next year estimates at $678.
Wheat is projected to jump from $395 to $409 an acre.

Related Stories
Farm legal expert Roger McEowen reviews the history of the Waters of the United States (WOTUS) rule and outlines how shifting definitions across multiple administrations have created regulatory confusion for landowners.
According to November’s Cattle on Feed Report, Nebraska now leads the nation in cattle feeding as tighter supplies continue to reshape regional market power and long-term price dynamics.
These “USDA Foods” are provided to USDA’s Food and Nutrition Service (FNS) nutrition assistance programs, including food banks that operate The Emergency Food Assistance Program (TEFAP), and are a vital component of the nation’s food safety net.
Tyson’s closure reflects deep supply shortages in the U.S. cattle industry, tightening packing capacity, weakening competition, and signaling more volatility ahead for cow-calf producers and feedyards.
The agriculture workforce remains strong and diverse, offering meaningful pathways for students pursuing careers that support the food and farm economy.
Screwworm.gov has targeted resources for a wide range of stakeholders, including livestock producers, veterinarians, animal health officials, wildlife professionals, healthcare providers, pet owners, researchers, drug manufacturers, and the general public.