NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Natural disasters are a growing force behind food-price pressure and tighter farm margins — and drought is the biggest culprit, according to a new Trace One study by Federico Fontanella.
Using FEMA and USDA data, researchers estimate average annual U.S. agricultural losses of $3.48 billion, with drought accounting for $1.9 billion — more than half.
On the other hand, Hurricanes contribute about $485 million a year, flooding accounts for $437 million, and cold waves add $286 million. Hail, wind, heat waves, tornadoes, winter weather, and wildfires contribute hundreds of millions more in ag losses.
Drought-Related Ag Losses Uneven Across Regions
California leads with ~$1.3 billion in expected annual farm losses — and the highest per-farm hit (~$20,528) — reflecting the vulnerability of high-value fruits, nuts, and vegetables to water scarcity. Next are Texas (~$205 million), then Iowa, North Carolina, and Florida. At the county level, Santa Barbara, CA tops the list at ~$245 million a year, with Yolo, Napa, Sutter, and Colusa also high. Nationally, the average per-farm loss is $1,851.
Recent shocks show how hazards translate to costs — April 2025 flooding in eastern Arkansas damaged ~$99 million in crops, while Hurricane Helene (2024) prompted $221.2 million in USDA disaster block grants for North Carolina.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Prioritize drought resilience — water, insurance, and crop mix — and use local hazard maps to target investments in infrastructure, coverage, and diversification.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
Rising rural business confidence supports local ag economies, but taxes and labor shortages remain key constraints.
January 17, 2026 02:00 PM
·
National Corn Growers Association Chief Economist Krista Swanson discusses corn supply pressures, market fundamentals, policy considerations, and producer outlook for the year ahead.
January 16, 2026 01:13 PM
·
Soft equipment sales signal cautious farm spending as producers prioritize cash flow over expansion.
January 16, 2026 07:00 AM
·
Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig discusses market conditions, policy priorities, and his outlook for agriculture moving forward.
January 15, 2026 01:36 PM
·
House Agriculture Committee Democrats are calling for action on the Farm and Family Relief Act, warning that proposed SNAP cost shifts to states could reduce food assistance for low-income families amid ongoing tariffs and trade disruptions that continue to strain U.S. farmers.
January 15, 2026 12:30 PM
·
Record ethanol production and improving blending demand continue to support corn usage despite rising short-term inventories.
January 15, 2026 11:47 AM
·
Tight beef cow supplies and steady demand point to continued record-level cull cow prices in 2026.
January 15, 2026 11:23 AM
·
Alissa White with American Farmland Trust joined us to provide insight into climate resilience efforts and strategies to help farmers manage weather-related risks.
January 14, 2026 02:20 PM
·
A high-stakes legal case in a South Dakota federal court concerning misleading country-of-origin labeling (MCOOL), such as “Product of the USA,” on food products, will significantly impact U.S. agricultural policy for years to come.
January 14, 2026 09:00 AM
·
