NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — Drought is straining the U.S. winter wheat crop this year. Traders tell us that some fields have been turned over to grazing, with the hardest-hit areas in the Southern Plains.
Economists at Texas A&M have been watching the crop’s decline, noting that good-to-excellent ratings in some areas are in single digits. Drought conditions have only improved slightly in key growing states, and some states missed much-needed rainfall in recent days.
According to the most recent Crop Progress Report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), 49 percent of the winter wheat crop has headed so far, with 31 percent in the top category and 37 percent rated poor to very poor.
On the corn side, 38 percent has been planted. The five-year average there is 34 percent.
And looking at soybeans, 33 percent of that crop is now in the ground, which is a 10 percent increase over the five-year average.
A lack of rainfall is helping some growers on the East Coast. Ben Hushon with The Mill says it is full speed ahead as growers work to make the most of recent good weather.
“Really just farmers, trying to make decisions every day, what is their priority?” Hushon says. “Is it going to be to plant corn, soybeans, or, in the case of the dairyman, shop? Just so many things going on, but again, a continued stretch of little to no rain, which allows all kinds of field work to be done.”
Hushon’s region in southern Pennsylvania and Maryland will see ideal weather again today, but a cold front moving in could bring storms. Conditions are expected to improve by this weekend.
Out west, a less-than-ideal snowpack is causing concern, but scientists at the University of Washington say it is important to put things into perspective.
“Well, one thing I would point out is, they said the same thing last year, and how terrible things were in this terrible drought,” explains Cliff Mass. “If you look at the numbers, the agricultural productivity for the state last year was not bad. So, that’s a warning right there.”
The snow melt usually runs until late June. Mass says reservoirs are in much better shape right now than they were at this time last year.
“Normally, you don’t start as high as we are right now,” Mass continues. “And so, now we are starting so high that even with less melting, we should still be pretty filled up in June, unless something strange happens.”
USDA meteorologists have been warning about the low snowpack situation for a while now, saying it’s become dire in places such as Oregon, Nevada, and the Southwest.
Other analysts, such as Rich Nelson at Allendale, are monitoring the weather in South America.
“You’ve seen rainfall down about 30% from normal, so we do have a light premium from that discussion, these markets,” Nelson told RFD News. “Keep in mind here, last week’s rains were very heavy in the south. In fact, we saw some rain—about 5 inches in some areas —but in the larger areas, there was moderate growth of the Sole, Matagrosso, and Goyas—looks like those areas only received about 0.3 inches last week. “
Nelson says this will be something his team will monitor closely in the coming weeks.
Spring planting is picking up across the country, with both corn and soybeans running ahead of the five-year average, though dry conditions and cooler temperatures are raising concerns about early crop development in parts of the Midwest.
Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities joined us on Tuesday’s Market Day Report to share his outlook on the latest USDA Crop Progress report.
In his interview with RFD News, Williamson discussed his main takeaways from the latest planting data and what he is hearing from growers as the season progresses.
Williamson also addressed how geopolitical events are impacting input prices and availability, and what that could mean for the remainder of the planting season.
