U.S. ag trade deficit could surpass $45 billion this year

This year’s ag trade deficit is forecast to ballon past $45 billion. It is a number that puts the trade balance in the red by double digits.

“A trade balance of -$12 billion, which is $8.9 billion less than the -$3 billion during the same time period the previous year,” said Bart Kenner, USDA economist.

Kenner says the main driver of slower exports in the last couple of years has been the strong dollar compared to foreign currencies. U.S. ag exports fell around $4 billion last year. Exports to Asia are expected to fall several billion dollars this year, and that was calculated before tariff discussions.

Related Stories
Global pork production is expected to rise in the first half of 2026, despite trade volatility stemming from shifting import policies and swine disease pressures.
Economists are also closely watching how policy decisions in Washington could influence markets moving forward. Analysts say deferred futures for corn, soybeans, and wheat suggest markets are operating near break-even levels, not at prices that would encourage expanded production.
Strong rail demand and higher fuel costs raise transportation risk even as barge and export flows stabilize.
Traders say that shift could eventually prompt the USDA to scale back soybean export projections, noting the outlook differs greatly for other grain commodities.
Often overlooked, cotton wholesalers act as stabilizers during market stress, translating fragmented retail demand into workable production programs for mills and manufacturers.
Early indications suggest the U.S. cattle industry may be nearing the end of its liquidation phase. Oklahoma State University livestock economist Dr. Derrell Peel says the industry could be at or near the cyclical low.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

ASFMRA’s George Baird shares insight on spring planting progress, acreage trends, and the financial factors influencing Mid-South farmers this season.
Jeramy Stephens with National Land Realty explains how the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling and ongoing ‘America First’ trade policy raise new questions about U.S. farmland values and agricultural market stability.
The San Antonio Stock Show and Rodeo concluded last night, marking the end of another successful year showcasing youth exhibitors, livestock producers, and the spirit of agriculture.
Kurt Kovarik of Clean Fuels Alliance America joined us to break down the latest developments in the Renewable Fuel Standard rulemaking process and what it could mean for agriculture, energy markets, and rural economies.
Jennifer Tirey of the Illinois Pork Producers Association joined us to discuss efforts to bring pork back into Chicago Public Schools, the nutritional benefits for students, and what the decision could mean for pork producers across the state.
Farmer and retired colonial Joe Ricker joined us to highlight Ag Safety Awareness Program Week, share his work supporting veterans and farmers, and offer guidance on making safety a year-round priority on the farm.