U.S. Hog Inventory Falls as Herd Contraction Continues

Lower inventories and cautious farrowing plans suggest tighter hog supplies into 2026, keeping producer margins sensitive to demand trends and health risks.

WASHINGTON (RFD-TV) — The latest Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report (PDF Version) from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows the domestic hog herd slipping again, with 74.5 million head on September 1, 2025, down one percent from a year earlier.

The breeding herd dropped two percent to 5.93 million head, while the market hog inventory of 68.5 million was also off by one percent. The June–August pig crop fell three percent from 2024 to 34.1 million head, even as pigs saved per litter inched higher to 11.82.

Producers signal further cutbacks, with sow farrowing intentions down two percent for September–November and slightly lower for December–February. The numbers came in weaker than some industry expectations, which had anticipated modest herd growth after earlier declines.

Analysts note continuing pressure from productivity and disease challenges, including Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS), which has reduced output in key regions.

Tony’s Farm-Level Takeaway: Lower inventories and cautious farrowing plans suggest tighter hog supplies into 2026, keeping producer margins sensitive to demand trends and health risks.
Related Stories
USDA’s steady yields and heavy global stocks keep grains range-bound unless demand firms or South American weather becomes a real threat.
USMEF’s Jay Theiler discusses his leadership role in representing U.S. beef and pork and provides an update on this week’s conference in Indianapolis.
Manure from a hog farm is more than just waste; it is also becoming a key renewable resource for operations.
As economic pressures continue to squeeze agriculture, ag lenders are signaling a more cautious outlook for farm profitability heading into next year, particularly among grain producers facing lower commodity prices and higher operating costs.
USDA released the November WASDE Report on Friday, the first supply-and-demand estimate to drop since September, just before the 43-day government shutdown.
Expanded aerial capacity strengthens the U.S.–Mexico buffer against screwworm, providing cattle producers with stronger protection heading into winter and reducing risk to herds along the southern tier.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Mike Knotts with the Tennessee Electric Cooperative Association joined us with the latest on storm impacts, power restoration, and safety considerations following the ice storm.
Brooks York with AgriSompo joined us with his outlook on crop insurance and risk management following the recent winter storm that tore through most of the United States, including the Midwest.
Meat stocks rose seasonally but remain below last year overall, while tighter butter inventories could support dairy prices, and belly stocks warrant close watch for pork markets.
Payment totals alone do not show financial stress — production costs and net losses complete the picture.
Year-round E15 remains on the table, but procedural caution and competing regional interests pushed action into a slower, negotiated path.
A mid-January winter storm delivered snow, ice, and extreme cold to a broad swath of the U.S., disrupting transportation, stressing livestock systems, and adding cost and complexity to winter farm operations as producers look toward spring.
Agriculture Shows
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.
Champions of Rural America is a half-hour dive into the legislative priorities for Rural America. Join us as we interview members of the Congressional Western Caucus to learn about efforts in Washington to preserve agriculture and tackles the most important topics in the ag industry on Champions of Rural America!
Featuring members of Congress, federal and state officials, ag and food leaders, farmers, and roundtable panelists for debates and discussions.