USDA drops 2025 milk production forecast to 226.9 billion pounds in February report

A slight drop in dairy production has led to varied prices for the month of February.

USDA reduced production by 400 million pounds based on recent Milk Production and Cattle Investory Reports. They showed a tighter supply of dairy heifers than expected.

The World Ag Outlook Board Chair said that the month-over-month changes on prices are notable.

According to Mark Jekanowski, “In terms of product prices, kind of mixed there. So, cheese prices we raised $0.02 per pound, reflecting pretty tight inventories, but the other main products— butter, non-fat dry milk, dry whey. We lowered butter, we reduced $0.05 per pound. Non-fat dry is down $0.04 and dry whey forecast we reduced $0.03 per pound...”

Meanwhile, all milk prices fell compared to the month prior.

“Class prices— Class 3 and Class 4 were each forecast lower this month. All milk price lowered this month by $0.45 per hundredweight to $22.60 per hundredweight. Nearly, equivalent to last year, down just $0.01 per hundredweight lower than last year,” he adds.

Jekanowski attributes some of this month’s price changes to the new Federal Milk Marketing Order. That is especially true for class prices, because of changes to how they are calculated.

Related Stories
Placements and marketings beat expectations, but declining on-feed totals and feeder constraints keep the supply story supportive for cattle prices into 2026. Dr. Derrell Peel, with Oklahoma State University, joined us to break down cattle-on-feed numbers and provide his broader market outlook.
USDA Rural Development Director for Kentucky, Travis Burton, joined us to discuss the Princeton facility (formerly Porter Road Meats), now backed by the USDA, and its role in expanding domestic meat processing capacity.
Farm CPA Paul Neiffer joined us to break down the recent Fifth Circuit Court decision overturning a prior Tax Court decision on self-employment tax for limited partners, the ruling’s impact on farmers, and potential next steps in Congress.
Americans for Prosperity Arkansas Director Ryan Norris talks energy infrastructure, regulatory reform, and the role of critical minerals in supporting rural America.
Congressman Adrian Smith of Nebraska joined us with the latest on efforts to secure year-round E15 sales.
Nearly everyone in the South Texas ag community appears extremely worried about the potential of a New World screwworm epidemic, according to a local veterinarian. RFD NEWS Correspondent Frank McCaffrey reports.