USDA Forecasts Record U.S. Corn Crop, Higher Ending Stocks in January WASDE Report

Market reaction was bearish for corn and soybeans, with analysts noting that abundant supplies amid tepid demand could keep price pressure on agricultural commodities.

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report (Web, PDF Version) projects significantly larger supplies for several key crops in the 2025-26 marketing year, driven by strong production estimates and slower demand growth.

The USDA raised its forecast for U.S. corn production to 17.0 billion bushels, a record total supported by higher yields and increased harvested acreage. With total use rising less than supply, ending stocks climbed to 2.227 billion bushels, above most market expectations.

Soybean output was also adjusted upward slightly, lifting U.S. ending stocks to about 350 million bushels as exports were trimmed.

Market reaction was bearish for corn and soybeans, with analysts noting that abundant supplies amid tepid demand could keep price pressure on agricultural commodities.

For wheat, modest increases in supply and reduced domestic use pushed ending stocks higher as well.

The report’s outlook for rice showed lower U.S. supplies and reduced ending stocks, while global estimates pointed to larger total world inventories of several grains and oilseeds.

Related Stories
Corn ethanol demand and stronger oilseed processing continue supporting domestic markets for crop producers.
Seasonal beef production gains may moderate retail price pressure, while tight cattle supplies continue supporting producer values.
Higher rail fuel surcharges could add cost pressure even as wheat production falls and grain movement remains active.
The Washington State Tree Fruit Association says crop quality looks promising despite ongoing drought conditions.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Fred Nichols with Huma discusses corn nutrition timing, side-dress nitrogen strategies, and key management tips as the 2026 crop continues to develop across the Midwest.
Matthew Poling with CLAAS joins us to discuss harvest strategies for a below-average wheat crop and combine adjustments growers should consider.
National Cotton Council’s Gary Adams joins us to discuss the USDA’s Great American Cotton Plan, crop conditions, prices, and efforts to boost domestic demand.
The agreement establishes a new system to monitor water deliveries to Texas and sets limits on how far Mexico can fall behind on its treaty obligations.
Unlike facilities focused on merchant ammonia, Meadowlark would convert its on-site ammonia into UAN and sulfur-containing ATS fertilizers used by regional crop producers.
Markets have been slow to respond as crop stress worsens across major winter wheat regions, where quality ratings have fallen to multi-decade lows.
Agriculture Shows
From the rapid technological advances in the business of farming to the policy that helps shape the industry, growers get unparalleled perspective from these guys. Max Armstrong, Mike Pearson and Greg Soulje: the names producers have long known and trusted for agriculture news, weather, and commentary.
Watch Rural Evening News on RFD Network to catch up on that day’s news surrounding agriculture and markets from across the world.
Every day on RFD Network, “Market Day Report” delivers LIVE coverage of agribusiness news, weather, and commodity market information from across the world. Our commodity markets coverage is updated every half hour to bringyou the latest agriculture news.
Farm Monitor shines a light on Southeastern agriculture and is the only weekly news and information program dedicated to Georgia’s largest and most important industry: agriculture.