USDA Grain Stocks Report Surprises Corn and Wheat

Bigger-than-expected corn and wheat stocks are bearish for prices, while soybean figures were neutral. Farmers may face additional price pressure as harvest accelerates.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) September 1 Grain Stocks report leaned bearish for corn and wheat, while soybeans landed close to expectations.

Old-crop corn stocks were reported at 1.532 billion bushels, well above the average trade estimate of 1.337 billion (range 1.26–1.45). The larger-than-expected figure suggests that feed and export use was softer than anticipated, resulting in more grain being stored as the new harvest advances.

Soybean stocks came in at 316 million bushels, only slightly under the average trade guess of 323 million (range 295–360). The figure was largely neutral, showing modestly stronger disappearance during the summer but staying within pre-report expectations.

All wheat stocks totaled 2.12 billion bushels, topping the average trade estimate of 2.043 billion (range 1.954–2.135). Larger-than-expected inventories reflect both strong production and slower early-season demand, adding pressure to an already heavy global wheat outlook.

Market analysts said the bearish surprises in corn and wheat could weigh on futures, while soybeans offered little fresh direction.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Bigger-than-expected corn and wheat stocks are bearish for prices, while soybean figures were neutral. Farmers may face additional price pressure as harvest accelerates.
Related Stories
Milk output is rising, but steep drops in Class I–IV prices are tightening margins heading into 2026.
Tight cattle supplies continue to drive lower beef output despite heavier weights.
WTO gauges point to agricultural raw materials trade growing more slowly than overall goods, reinforcing the need to manage export risk and monitor policy shifts closely.
China’s renewed purchases signal improving sorghum demand at a time when export markets are otherwise uneven. Meanwhile, agriculture groups across the U.S, Canada, and Mexico want to protect close trade relations.
Strong demand supports sweet potatoes, but grading challenges and rising costs weigh on returns for Southeastern growers.
Pressure on grain storage capacity and stronger export positioning are pushing more grain onto railroads, highways, and river systems as logistics become a key bottleneck this fall.
The Cotton-4 are pushing hard for new value chain investments. Still, many U.S. cotton producers face unsustainable losses, and weakened regional textile capacity threatens the survival of the Carolina “dirt-to-shirt” supply chain.
Late harvest and tight supplies shape crop progress and agribusiness this week. Here is a regional snapshot of harvest pace, crop conditions, logistics, and livestock economics across U.S. agriculture for the week of Dec. 1, 2025.
Tryston Beyrer, Crop Nutrition Lead at The Mosaic Company, examines planning trends as producers weigh corn and soybean plantings for 2026.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Working capital is tightening for crop farms, increasing reliance on operating loans even as land values steady in the broader sector.
Higher ocean freight raises export costs just as global grain competition intensifies.
Rep. Michelle Fischbach shares her appreciation for rural communities and outlines how the Working Families Tax Cut is aimed to support farm families on RFD-TV’s Champions of Rural America.
Farm CPA Paul Neiffer has developed a detailed calculator to help producers navigate the program’s requirements. He joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to explain how it works.
Henning Strauss, CEO of STRAUSS, joins us to share his company’s commitment to crafting tools that farmers wear.
Dr. Sally DeNotta with the American Association of Equine Practitioners (AAEP) provides horse owners with guidance on the recent outbreak of Equine Herpes Virus (EHV).