USDA Grain Stocks Report Surprises Corn and Wheat

Bigger-than-expected corn and wheat stocks are bearish for prices, while soybean figures were neutral. Farmers may face additional price pressure as harvest accelerates.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) September 1 Grain Stocks report leaned bearish for corn and wheat, while soybeans landed close to expectations.

Old-crop corn stocks were reported at 1.532 billion bushels, well above the average trade estimate of 1.337 billion (range 1.26–1.45). The larger-than-expected figure suggests that feed and export use was softer than anticipated, resulting in more grain being stored as the new harvest advances.

Soybean stocks came in at 316 million bushels, only slightly under the average trade guess of 323 million (range 295–360). The figure was largely neutral, showing modestly stronger disappearance during the summer but staying within pre-report expectations.

All wheat stocks totaled 2.12 billion bushels, topping the average trade estimate of 2.043 billion (range 1.954–2.135). Larger-than-expected inventories reflect both strong production and slower early-season demand, adding pressure to an already heavy global wheat outlook.

Market analysts said the bearish surprises in corn and wheat could weigh on futures, while soybeans offered little fresh direction.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Bigger-than-expected corn and wheat stocks are bearish for prices, while soybean figures were neutral. Farmers may face additional price pressure as harvest accelerates.
Related Stories
Corn and wheat exports remain a demand bright spot, while soybeans are transitioning into a more typical late-winter shipping slowdown.
Despite rising costs and growing food insecurity, meat demand remained strong in 2025 as higher-income consumers offset cutbacks elsewhere. Economists break down the K-shaped economy, upcoming USDA cattle reports, livestock production outlooks, and renewed debate over beef imports and country-of-origin labeling heading into 2026.
Corn growers are turning to ethanol, E15 expansion, and export markets to help absorb record supplies and stabilize prices. Farm leaders discuss low-carbon ethanol demand, flex-fuel vehicle challenges, input costs, and the role of USMCA as producers look for market relief in the year ahead.
From rising trade tensions in Europe to a pending Supreme Court decision on tariffs and shifting demand from China, global trade policy spearheaded by President Donald Trump continues to shape the outlook for U.S. agriculture—adding uncertainty as farmers navigate another volatile year.
The Surface Transportation Board rejects the proposed Norfolk Southern–Union Pacific merger, prompting concerns from agricultural shippers about rail consolidation, service reliability, and higher transportation costs.
Freight volatility and route selection remain critical to soybean export margins and competitiveness.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Higher prices are bringing relief to markets, but rising input costs are putting pressure on the producers.
Governor Jim Pillen joined us to share the latest on the Nebraska wildfires, discuss relief efforts, and outline considerations for producers navigating the ongoing situation.
Regulatory changes may influence farm costs and operations.
Lower hop stocks may support prices in the near term.
Biofuel policy decisions may influence planting economics. Today, March 18, is also National Biodiesel Day.
Bryan Combs with USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service breaks down new farmland data from the TOTAL survey, highlights key findings, and potential impacts for the ag sector. ASFMRA’s David Klein also shares how those trends are reflected in the current farmland market, especially in the Midwest.