WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — The U.S. Department of Agriculture is lowering several 2026/27 production and ending-stock estimates in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report for August 2026.
USDA’s first survey-based yield estimates for corn and soybeans show a mixed picture for producers.
Corn Production Nears Record Despite Lower Yield
USDA forecasts 2026/27 U.S. corn production at 16 billion bushels, up 13 million bushels from July and the second-largest crop on record.
The first survey-based yield estimate is 180.7 bushels per acre, down 2.3 bushels from the July projection.
Corn exports are raised by 75 million bushels to 3.3 billion bushels, reflecting stronger global demand and reduced Ukrainian exports. Total corn use is projected at 16.3 billion bushels.
With use rising faster than supplies, ending stocks are reduced by 137 million bushels to 1.7 billion bushels. USDA also raised its season-average farm price forecast to $4.50 per bushel.
The first survey-based corn and soybean yield estimates will give traders and producers a closer look at how USDA sees the 2026 crop developing as harvest approaches.
Soybean Production Increases
USDA raised its 2026/27 soybean production forecast by 44 million bushels to 4.5 billion bushels.
The first survey-based yield estimate is 52.7 bushels per acre, down 0.3 bushels from July and last year’s record.
Harvested acreage is projected at 85.8 million acres, up 1.4 million acres from the previous estimate.
Strong crush margins and demand for soybean meal and oil prompted USDA to raise projected soybean crush by 30 million bushels to 2.78 billion. Ending stocks are increased by 10 million bushels to 320 million.
The season-average soybean price remains at $11.40 per bushel.
Wheat Production, Stocks Decline
U.S. wheat production is lowered by 5 million bushels to 1.531 billion bushels, with Hard Red Winter and Durum accounting for most of the reduction.
Ending stocks are projected at 717 million bushels, down 5 million from July and 22% below last year.
USDA raised its season-average wheat price forecast by 20 cents to $6.20 per bushel.
Sorghum Takes Another Hit
Sorghum production is projected at 296 million bushels, down 84 million from July.
The projected yield dropped to 55.4 bushels per acre, 13.9 bushels below last month’s estimate.
Cattle Production and Prices Lowered
USDA lowered its 2026 beef production forecast, citing a slower pace of steer and heifer slaughter and reduced cow slaughter through the remainder of the year.
Cattle price forecasts were also lowered for the third and fourth quarters of 2026 and through 2027, reflecting weaker-than-expected demand for fed cattle.
The report also incorporates USDA’s plan to resume live cattle imports from Mexico through the Douglas, Arizona, port beginning August 24, while other ports remain closed pending further guidance.
