OTTAWA, ONT. (RFD NEWS) — Potash remains a key point of focus in U.S.-Canada trade discussions after President Donald Trump raised the possibility of buying lower-cost supplies from Belarus.
Trump said Monday that the United States was working on a “massive deal” to purchase Belarusian potash at a price substantially below what the U.S. currently pays Canada. But on Tuesday, Trump said the U.S. would continue buying Canadian potash, while Belarus would like to sell at a lower price.
Lyndsey Smith with RealAg Radio joined us on Wednesday’s Market Day Report to discuss why the issue is particularly important for Saskatchewan, the largest potash-producing province in Canada.
Canada Watching Potential Belarus Potash Deal
In her interview with RFD News, Smith says Canada is closely watching the possibility of the United States buying more potash from Belarus, particularly because of the importance of the U.S. market to Canadian producers.
“Obviously, Canada is concerned in that the U.S. accounts for 53% of the potash that’s sold from Canada that goes out to the world,” Smith said.
She said the U.S. market is particularly important to Saskatchewan, Canada’s largest potash-producing province.
“So, yes, it’s half our market,” Smith said. “So the U.S. is obviously incredibly important.”
Smith said the U.S. buys about 10 million tons of potash from Canada each year, accounting for nearly 90 percent of the potash the United States buys.
“It’s not just important to Canada. It’s obviously an incredibly important market for the U.S. and for U.S. farmers, because the vast majority of potash comes from Canada,” she said.
Transportation Logistics Complicate Belarus Supplies
Smith said the reaction in Saskatchewan has included comments from Premier Scott Moe, who questioned whether Belarusian potash could realistically replace Canadian supplies.
Moe said Belarusian potash is already committed for at least the current season and beyond. Smith said Potash also moves east rather than west, creating logistical challenges and additional costs if it were shipped into the U.S. market.
“It’s just not necessarily feasible when we look at how potash moves throughout the world,” Smith said.
She said the issue is still significant because the United States is such an important market for Canadian potash.
Potash Tied to Broader U.S.-Canada Trade Negotiations
Smith said she believes the potash discussion is connected to broader U.S.-Canada trade negotiations.
“I think it’s pretty clear that this is a move by Trump to get Canada back to the negotiating table,” Smith said.
She pointed to a threatened ban on certain Canadian products scheduled to take effect Sept. 29.
Smith said the potash announcement appears to be part of the broader effort to bring Canada back to negotiations and address outstanding issues between the two countries.
Canadian Potash Supplies Expected to Remain Critical Supply
Looking ahead, Smith said she does not expect Canadian potash to stop moving into the United States.
“Realistically, I don’t think the analysts are saying, you know, the potash is going to continue to move from Canada into the U.S.,” Smith said. “It’s just, it’s a reliable source. It’s an important source for both countries.”
Smith also noted that Canada’s Parliament has resumed sitting and said Canadian officials need to return to the negotiating table with the United States to work toward a trade agreement.
“We need to make sure that we as Canadians, that our government is coming back to the table to sit down with the U.S. and try to put together, you know, some sort of trade deal here,” she said.
Smith said continued volatility and a strained relationship between the two countries can affect both sides.
“Because we know that the longer this volatility and this broken relationship continues, everybody pays the price,” Smith said.
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