USDA Projects Ample 2025 Supplies Across Major Crops

Strong U.S. yields and steady demand leave most major crops well supplied, keeping price pressure in place unless usage strengthens or weather shifts outlooks.

Corn-Soybeans_AlfRibeiro-AdobeStock_335629402_1920x1080.jpg

AlfRibeiro – stock.adobe.com

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD-TV) — The USDA’s November WASDE report points to a well-supplied outlook across major U.S. crops, with corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton all showing comfortable production levels heading into 2025. The update reflects strong yields, steady acreage, and demand that remains firm enough to support movement but not tight enough to draw down carryout significantly.

Corn remains the most significant driver of overall supply. USDA trimmed yield to 186 bushels per acre and lowered production slightly to 16.8 billion bushels, but larger beginning stocks more than offset those reductions. Exports were raised to 3.1 billion bushels on record fall shipment pace, pushing total demand higher. Even so, ending stocks increased to 2.2 billion bushels, and USDA raised the season-average price to $4.00 per bushel.

Soybean supplies tightened modestly due to lower carry-in and a smaller crop. Production is now estimated at 4.3 billion bushels with a 53-bushel yield, down slightly from prior expectations. USDA trimmed exports by 50 million bushels to 1.64 billion as U.S. price advantages narrowed against Brazil and Argentina. Ending stocks slipped only marginally, but stronger prices led USDA to raise the season-average price to $10.50 per bushel.

Wheat posted one of the report’s biggest supply increases. A record all-wheat yield lifted production to 1.985 billion bushels, up 58 million. With domestic use unchanged, nearly all the added supply flowed straight into ending stocks. USDA lowered the season-average price to $5.00 per bushel, reflecting both stronger production and softer market expectations for the remainder of the marketing year.

Cotton saw another sizable production increase as improved yields across most major states pushed output to 14.1 million bales — nearly 900,000 above September. USDA lifted exports to 12.2 million bales but raised ending stocks almost 20% to 4.3 million, generating a burdensome stocks-to-use ratio near 31%. The season-average upland price was lowered to 62 cents per pound as abundant supplies continue to weigh on the market.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Strong U.S. yields and steady demand leave most major crops well supplied, keeping price pressure in place unless usage strengthens or weather shifts outlooks.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Consistent sorghum quality supports strong export demand potential.
Corn and sorghum exports remain strong; soybean demand lags.
USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report shows increased supplies across all major commodities, with corn, soybeans, and wheat stocks all rising compared to a year ago. Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities discusses producer and market sentiment ahead of the key report.
Acre shifts reflect margins, costs, and market opportunities.
Lower shipping costs alone will not restore export competitiveness.
The five-day auction drew up to 6,000 people and saw steady prices throughout the event

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Strong feedlot demand keeps beef-on-dairy calf premiums elevated.
Cattle producers face mounting pressure as U.S.-Mexico trade talks resume, but expanding drought, rising input costs, and policy work to improve the long-term industry outlook.
Lower U.S. ethanol production and stocks may support ethanol prices while strong export demand continues to support ethanol and corn markets.
More Farms File for Bankruptcy As Strong Farm Loan Demand Boosts Bank Earnings
China’s changing pork demand may limit export growth opportunities.
Spring Fieldwork Progress Mixed As Moisture Slows Activity
Agriculture Shows
Hosted by Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady and RFD News Markets Specialist Tony St. James, Commodity Talk delivers expert insight into the day’s ag commodity markets just before the CME opens. Only on RFD-TV and Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147.
A look at the news, weather and commodities headlines that drove agriculture markets in the past week.
Everything profits from prairie. Soil, air, water — and all kinds of life! Learn how you can improve your land with prairie restoration, cover crops and prairie strips, while growing your bottom line.
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.