USDA Projects Ample 2025 Supplies Across Major Crops

Strong U.S. yields and steady demand leave most major crops well supplied, keeping price pressure in place unless usage strengthens or weather shifts outlooks.

Corn-Soybeans_AlfRibeiro-AdobeStock_335629402_1920x1080.jpg

AlfRibeiro – stock.adobe.com

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD-TV) — The USDA’s November WASDE report points to a well-supplied outlook across major U.S. crops, with corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton all showing comfortable production levels heading into 2025. The update reflects strong yields, steady acreage, and demand that remains firm enough to support movement but not tight enough to draw down carryout significantly.

Corn remains the most significant driver of overall supply. USDA trimmed yield to 186 bushels per acre and lowered production slightly to 16.8 billion bushels, but larger beginning stocks more than offset those reductions. Exports were raised to 3.1 billion bushels on record fall shipment pace, pushing total demand higher. Even so, ending stocks increased to 2.2 billion bushels, and USDA raised the season-average price to $4.00 per bushel.

Soybean supplies tightened modestly due to lower carry-in and a smaller crop. Production is now estimated at 4.3 billion bushels with a 53-bushel yield, down slightly from prior expectations. USDA trimmed exports by 50 million bushels to 1.64 billion as U.S. price advantages narrowed against Brazil and Argentina. Ending stocks slipped only marginally, but stronger prices led USDA to raise the season-average price to $10.50 per bushel.

Wheat posted one of the report’s biggest supply increases. A record all-wheat yield lifted production to 1.985 billion bushels, up 58 million. With domestic use unchanged, nearly all the added supply flowed straight into ending stocks. USDA lowered the season-average price to $5.00 per bushel, reflecting both stronger production and softer market expectations for the remainder of the marketing year.

Cotton saw another sizable production increase as improved yields across most major states pushed output to 14.1 million bales — nearly 900,000 above September. USDA lifted exports to 12.2 million bales but raised ending stocks almost 20% to 4.3 million, generating a burdensome stocks-to-use ratio near 31%. The season-average upland price was lowered to 62 cents per pound as abundant supplies continue to weigh on the market.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Strong U.S. yields and steady demand leave most major crops well supplied, keeping price pressure in place unless usage strengthens or weather shifts outlooks.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Lower turkey and wheat prices helped ease Thanksgiving costs, but underlying farm-sector pressures remain significant.
Cattle and hog supplies continue to tighten while dairy output expands, creating a split outlook in which red-meat prices soften and milk values come under pressure from larger supplies.
Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities shares an update on post-WASDE grain movement, with corn leading export momentum, soybeans steady, and wheat and sorghum continuing to move selectively.
China still has a long way to go before it meets its commitment to buy 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans this year.
Here is a regional snapshot of harvest pace, crop conditions, logistics, and livestock economics across U.S. agriculture for the week of Monday, November 17, 2025.
Ethanol markets remain mixed — weaker production and blend rates are being partially balanced by stronger exports as winter demand patterns take shape.
While agriculture doesn’t predict every recession, the sector’s long history of turning down before the broader economy
ARC-CO delivers the bulk of 2024 support, offering key margin relief as producers manage tight operating conditions.
USDA’s steady yields and heavy global stocks keep grains range-bound unless demand firms or South American weather becomes a real threat.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

WTO gauges point to agricultural raw materials trade growing more slowly than overall goods, reinforcing the need to manage export risk and monitor policy shifts closely.
Improved export prospects and higher crop prices strengthened future expectations despite continued caution about spending.
China’s renewed purchases signal improving sorghum demand at a time when export markets are otherwise uneven. Meanwhile, agriculture groups across the U.S, Canada, and Mexico want to protect close trade relations.
The Environmental Protection Agency confirms that new single-fluorinated pesticides are not PFAS and remain fully compliant with current safety standards.
Strong demand supports sweet potatoes, but grading challenges and rising costs weigh on returns for Southeastern growers.
Pressure on grain storage capacity and stronger export positioning are pushing more grain onto railroads, highways, and river systems as logistics become a key bottleneck this fall.
Agriculture Shows
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.
Champions of Rural America is a half-hour dive into the legislative priorities for Rural America. Join us as we interview members of the Congressional Western Caucus to learn about efforts in Washington to preserve agriculture and tackles the most important topics in the ag industry on Champions of Rural America!
Featuring members of Congress, federal and state officials, ag and food leaders, farmers, and roundtable panelists for debates and discussions.
The goal of “Where the Food Comes From” is as simple as its name implies — host Chip Carter takes you along on the journey of where our food comes from — and we don’t just mean to the supermarket (though that’s part of the big picture!). But beyond where it comes from, how it gets there, and all the links in the chain that make that happen.
Join markets specialist Scott Shellady, better known as the Cow Guy, as he covers the market-close, breaking down headlines that drive the commodities and equities markets with commentary from respected industry heavyweights.