USDA Projects Ample 2025 Supplies Across Major Crops

Strong U.S. yields and steady demand leave most major crops well supplied, keeping price pressure in place unless usage strengthens or weather shifts outlooks.

Corn-Soybeans_AlfRibeiro-AdobeStock_335629402_1920x1080.jpg

AlfRibeiro – stock.adobe.com

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD-TV) — The USDA’s November WASDE report points to a well-supplied outlook across major U.S. crops, with corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton all showing comfortable production levels heading into 2025. The update reflects strong yields, steady acreage, and demand that remains firm enough to support movement but not tight enough to draw down carryout significantly.

Corn remains the most significant driver of overall supply. USDA trimmed yield to 186 bushels per acre and lowered production slightly to 16.8 billion bushels, but larger beginning stocks more than offset those reductions. Exports were raised to 3.1 billion bushels on record fall shipment pace, pushing total demand higher. Even so, ending stocks increased to 2.2 billion bushels, and USDA raised the season-average price to $4.00 per bushel.

Soybean supplies tightened modestly due to lower carry-in and a smaller crop. Production is now estimated at 4.3 billion bushels with a 53-bushel yield, down slightly from prior expectations. USDA trimmed exports by 50 million bushels to 1.64 billion as U.S. price advantages narrowed against Brazil and Argentina. Ending stocks slipped only marginally, but stronger prices led USDA to raise the season-average price to $10.50 per bushel.

Wheat posted one of the report’s biggest supply increases. A record all-wheat yield lifted production to 1.985 billion bushels, up 58 million. With domestic use unchanged, nearly all the added supply flowed straight into ending stocks. USDA lowered the season-average price to $5.00 per bushel, reflecting both stronger production and softer market expectations for the remainder of the marketing year.

Cotton saw another sizable production increase as improved yields across most major states pushed output to 14.1 million bales — nearly 900,000 above September. USDA lifted exports to 12.2 million bales but raised ending stocks almost 20% to 4.3 million, generating a burdensome stocks-to-use ratio near 31%. The season-average upland price was lowered to 62 cents per pound as abundant supplies continue to weigh on the market.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Strong U.S. yields and steady demand leave most major crops well supplied, keeping price pressure in place unless usage strengthens or weather shifts outlooks.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Slightly higher output amid softer gasoline pull points to steady corn grind — watch regional stocks and export pace for basis clues.
Expect firm calf and fed-cattle prices — pair selective heifer retention with prudent hedging and liquidity to bridge rebuilding costs.
The Louisiana cotton crop is the smallest on record, but strong yields are a silver lining. LSU AgCenter’s Craig Gautreaux reports from northeast Louisiana.
Soybean farmer and Arkansas Lt. Gov. Leslie Rutledge highlights why the U.S. trade standoff with China is especially critical for Arkansas producers.
Having a good read on fuel prices is a must during harvest, but one analyst says grain farmers should also be watching the crude oil markets.
The new antitrust agreement between the Department of Justice (DOJ) and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) aims to enforce antitrust laws and monitor market activity across the ag sector.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Corn exports remain strong, while soybeans and wheat shift week to week on river conditions and global demand.
A regional snapshot of harvest pace, crop conditions, logistics, and livestock economics across U.S. agriculture, prepared by RFD-TV Markets Specialist Tony St. James, for the week of Monday, November 24, 2025.
Texas Ag Commissioner Sid Miller warns horse owners after EHV-1 cases linked to the Waco WPRA Finals. Horses linked to recent Waco events should be isolated and closely monitored, as early action is critical to stopping the spread of EHV-1.
Farmers with unpaid Hansen-Mueller grain should verify delivery records immediately and file indemnity claims quickly, as coverage rules differ sharply by state.
According to November’s Cattle on Feed Report, Nebraska now leads the nation in cattle feeding as tighter supplies continue to reshape regional market power and long-term price dynamics.
Higher rail tariffs and tighter Canadian supplies will keep oat transportation costs firm into 2026.
Agriculture Shows
Hosted by Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady and RFD News Markets Specialist Tony St. James, Commodity Talk delivers expert insight into the day’s ag commodity markets just before the CME opens. Only on RFD-TV and Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147.
A look at the news, weather and commodities headlines that drove agriculture markets in the past week.
Everything profits from prairie. Soil, air, water — and all kinds of life! Learn how you can improve your land with prairie restoration, cover crops and prairie strips, while growing your bottom line.
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.