WASHINGTON, DC (RFD-TV) – USDA’s September Crop Production and WASDE reports point to record-setting corn output, strong soybean yields, slightly smaller cotton supplies, and tighter wheat ending stocks for 2025/26.
Farmers face record corn supplies and heavy export demand, but soybean exports are slipping as global rivals expand sales. Wheat growers gain from stronger exports, while cotton producers contend with smaller crops but steady prices. Market focus will remain on trade flows and harvest results in the weeks ahead.
CORN
Corn production is forecast at a record 16.8 billion bushels, up 13% from last year, with yields pegged at 186.7 bushels per acre. Harvested acres are estimated at 90.0 million, making this year’s one of the largest corn crops since the 1930s. USDA trimmed corn yields by 2.1 bushels from August but increased acreage enough to lift output. Ending stocks are forecast at 2.1 billion bushels, down slightly from last month, with exports projected at a record 3.0 billion bushels.
SOYBEANS
Soybean production is forecast at 4.30 billion bushels, down 2% from 2024, though yields remain strong at 53.5 bushels per acre, a record if realized. Harvested acreage is estimated at 80.3 million, down 7% year-over-year. USDA lowered exports by 20 million bushels, citing stronger competition from Russia, Canada, and Argentina. Ending stocks are raised to 300 million bushels.
WHEAT
Wheat supplies were unchanged, but exports were raised 25 million bushels to 900 million on stronger sales of Hard Red Winter wheat. Ending stocks are now pegged at 844 million bushels, 25 million below last month, and slightly under last year. The season-average price forecast dropped 20 cents to $5.10 per bushel.
COTTON
Cotton output is forecast at 13.2 million bales, down 8% from last year, with yields averaging 861 pounds per acre. Upland production is seen at 12.9 million bales, while Pima cotton is forecast at 309,000 bales. Ending stocks are steady at 3.6 million bales, leaving the stocks-to-use ratio at just over 26%. The season-average price remains 64 cents per pound.
Shaun Haney joined RFD News to discuss the potential impact of the Trump-Xi summit uncertainty, ongoing agricultural trade talks, and why geopolitical developments could carry important implications for farmers and global commodity markets.
